Opec+ delegates will meet in Vienna this week to begin preliminary discussions on a process to update member states' production capacity estimates.
The 22-member alliance plans to use the capacity estimates to determine new production baselines, from which it will calculate output targets for 2027.
In the meetings, scheduled for 18-19 September, delegates hope to agree on a mechanism to assess each member's maximum sustainable crude production capacity, sources said. The secretariat wants to present a viable plan to Opec+ ministers by the end of the year, sources said.
The IEA puts Opec+ — including Mexico — maximum sustainable capacity at 47.9mn b/d. The same countries' crude output rose by 509,000 b/d on the month to 42.4mn b/d in August, based on an average of secondary sources including Argus.
Opec+ had planned to have new production baselines in place for 2025, but this was pushed back to 2026 and then into 2027 by inter-group disagreements about the process, which included independent assessments by consultancies Rystad, Wood MacKenzie and IHS.
Even if Opec+ agrees on a new framework to determine production capacities, the process is likely to be challenging. Some members, such as Iraq and Nigeria, are already clamouring for baseline upgrades although it is unclear if these requests reflect actual capacity increases. Angola left Opec in 2024 after it was handed a lower production target than it had requested.
The spare production capacity of Opec+ has come under the spotlight in recent weeks as eight core members unwind large sets of output cuts. There are doubts over the ability of some members — including Russia and Iraq — to reach their previous production levels over the coming months, because of upstream and midstream constraints.
