Thailand's energy system is under pressure because of higher demand from electric vehicles (EVs) and data centres, but raising solar capacity and battery storage could reduce electricity production costs and emissions, according to a report released today by think-tank Ember.
Thailand's revised power development plan (RPDP), which it released in 2024, aims to raise renewable energy generation to 33pc of the power mix by 2030 and 51pc by 2037. The RPDP entails phasing out 8GW of net fossil fuel capacity, and adding 50GW of renewables and 14GW of storage capacity.
Implementing this plan is expected to require a total fixed expenditure of $153bn over 2024-37, according to Ember estimates. But if the country raises the RPDP's solar capacity targets by 89pc and battery storage by 60pc, it could save $1.8bn in power generation costs by 2037, as well as avoid 147mn t of CO2 emissions.
Thailand aims for zero-emission vehicles to make up at least 30pc of auto production by 2030, which is set to drive growth in EV adoption over the next few years. But the EV boom presents a "double-edged sword", the report said, as it could strain the grid even as it decarbonises the transport sector. It is therefore essential to ensure that EV charging is powered by clean energy.
Thailand is also aiming to boost development of data centres, which are expected to grow by 7.5-8.5pc/yr in 2025-27.
Reducing fossil fuel reliance
Thailand can cut fossil fuel imports by maximising solar and storage and decentralising energy production through a small-scale redistributed renewable energy system, the report said.
Fossil fuels accounted for more than 80pc of electricity generation in 2024, with natural gas making up around 68pc. Installed solar capacity was just 3.4GW, despite the country's high solar resource potential of about 300GW, said Ember.
The RPDP includes 6.3GW of new gas capacity, but with the country's overall gas fleet set to fall steadily over 2024-37, this limits net additions of gas capacity to just 2GW.
The country's longer-term plans include the complete phase-out of coal plants by 2050 and bioenergy or carbon capture and storage (CCS) retrofitting, as well as increasing the share of renewable energy in the power mix to 68pc by 2040 and 74pc by 2050.
Thailand's natural gas imports have increased over the past decade, and the share of imported LNG is expected to rise to 60pc by 2035 from around 40pc in 2024. This reliance on imported gas increases the vulnerability of Thailand's economy, the report said.
Investing in energy storage systems can provide more flexibility, help balance supply and demand, reduce curtailment, and deliver ancillary services, the report said.
Additionally, limiting new coal and gas investments to flexible support functions would reduce the risk of lock-in and stranded assets, while still ensuring reliable peaking and back-up power.
Thailand intends to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30pc from business-as-usual levels by 2030. This could increase to 40pc, depending on access to technology development and transfer, financial resources and support for capacity building. The country aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2065.
