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US LNG accelerating 'too quickly': TotalEnergies

  • Märkte: Natural gas
  • 30.09.25

TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne has voiced concerns over the rapid growth rate of US LNG projects at the firm's 2025 strategy and outlook event.

The build-up of planned US LNG projects is accelerating "too quickly", Pouyanne said on 29 September, adding that he would be surprised if all of them find investors and term offtakers.

Pouyanne implied that some project developments have probably been influenced by political pressure on Asian countries that sign deals as part of tariff negotiations.

Five US LNG projects have reached financial close this year, including the 13.5mn t/yr second phase of the Port Arthur LNG export terminal about a week ago (see table). And other US LNG export facilities planning to take a final investment decision (FID) by the end of this year include the 9.5mn t/yr Commonwealth LNG terminal and Glenfarne's 4mn t/yr Texas LNG project.

US LNG developer NextDecade, in which TotalEnergies has a 17.1pc stake, reached FID on the planned three-train 17.6mn t/yr Rio Grande export plant in 2023. Pouyanne said the firm had "worked hard" to raise $10bn in financing for the project. The firm previously planned to increase its stake in NextDecade to 17.5pc.

Pouyanne said the firm would not sign up to its option for capacity in the terminal's planned 6mn t/yr fifth train.

LNG oversupply 'biggest risk to industry'

The rapid buildout of LNG export capacity leading to potential oversupply is the biggest risk facing the industry, Pouyanne said at the Gastech conference in Milan earlier this month.

The US is driving LNG export growth, with TotalEnergies set to boost its offtake from the country to 18mn t/yr from 10mn t/yr by the end of the decade.

Oversupply could start from 2028 and continue for "some years" if many of the projects that are yet to reach FID move ahead.

TotalEnergies is de-risking some of the potential oversupply by selling some LNG on an oil-linked basis, pointing to recent deals with Chinese and South Korean buyers. But lower prices from oversupply would probably spur more demand, Pouyanne said.

Pouyanne pointed out that the LNG market works in cycles — when prices are low, firms do not invest in export capacity, which tightens the market, and then when prices are higher again, investment rises, and the market loosens again.

US projects reaching FID in 2025mn t/yr
ProjectDeveloperFID dateExpected on line dateVolume
Rio Grande train 4NextDecade9-Sep2H306.0
LouisianaWoodside Energy29-Apr202916.5
Corpus Christi trains 8 & 9Cheniere24-Jun20283.3
CP2 phase 1Venture Global28-Jul202720.2
Port Arthur phase 2Sempra23-Sep203013.5

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