Norwegian state-controlled Equinor has estimated scope 3, or end-use, emissions from its proposed UK Rosebank oil field at 249mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) over its lifetime, according to an updated environmental assessment published today by the UK government.
The scope 3 emissions, which would result from burning the oil produced, are based on a highest-case scenario for Rosebank's oil production. Equinor estimated the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the field's lifetime at 254mn t/CO2e.
Equinor concluded that the effect of Rosebank's scope 3 emissions "on climate is not significant".
Equinor has an 80pc stake in Rosebank, west of the Shetland Islands in Scotland, and London-listed Ithaca holds the remaining 20pc.
The estimated scope 3 emissions from Rosebank "are compatible with global and national pathways that allow for continued, albeit declining, use of oil and gas during the transition to net zero", Equinor said. Rosebank's "high oil case" production is "within the range of what is considered compatible with frameworks like the Paris Agreement", it added.
The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C threshold. Net zero global emissions would mark the point at which the world stopped warming.
But there is no room for new oil and gas fields if the world is to reach net zero emissions by 2050, energy watchdog the IEA has said. Equinor said that production from Rosebank is set to decline at "approximately the same rate as the decline in demand projected in the [IEA's net zero] scenario."
The then-Conservative UK government greenlit Rosebank in September 2023. But Scotland's supreme civil court ruled in January that the consent was unlawful and quashed the consent, as the scope 3 emissions were not taken into account. It ruled that the UK government could take a new decision on the fields, "this time taking into account downstream emissions".
The UK Labour government has committed to end new offshore oil and gas licensing and consulted on the topic earlier this year. The government recognises a transitional role for oil and gas as the country decarbonises.
Global GHG levels "reached unprecedented highs" in 2024, the World Meteorological Organisation said today, driven by fossil CO2 emissions. Global GHG emissions, excluding land use, land use change and forestry, stood at 57bn t/CO2e in 2023, according to the UN Environment Programme.
