There is a high risk of significant cold spells, low wind speeds and low rainfall in northwest Europe (NWE) in December-February, forecaster Metdesk said at its Winter Symposium on Thursday.
Metdesk projects a higher risk of significant cold spells in northwest Europe in December-February than last winter, but above-average temperatures in southeast Europe.
Several factors — including a weak La Nina event in the fourth quarter, a 75pc chance of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), and a 25pc chance of a split polar vortex — underpin Metdesk's projection and could push temperatures 1-2°C below the norm in northwest Europe.
Cold spells and weak wind forecasts would be likely to boost demand for gas.
There is also a higher chance of a still and dry winter in northwest Europe, especially in the first half of the season. In December-February the firm forecasts wind will be 5-10pc below the norm and precipitation 10-20pc below the norm.
But Metdesk expressed caution over January-February, emphasising the unpredictability of SSW effects. More often than not, SSW events do not produce severe cold spells.
Southeast Europe should not be affected by these conditions, and is likely to experience temperatures 0.5-1.5°C above average, wind 5-10pc above average and precipitation 10-20pc above average in December-February, Metdesk said.
In Asia, the firm sees mild weather in central and eastern regions for most of the winter, but cold weather in the northeastern, with 70pc confidence. Metdesk was especially confident regarding a cold spell in December in northeast Asia. This could boost heating demand and competition with Europe for LNG.
The company forecasts mostly mild weather in the US this winter, also with 70pc confidence, except for a cold spell in January in the southeast and in February in the northwest.
Monthly forecasts
Monthly forecasts for Europe provide a more nuanced view, especially in the second half of the season.
In November, Metdesk forecasts temperatures 0.5-1.5°C below the norm, wind 5-10pc below the norm and precipitation 10-20pc below the norm for northwest Europe, with 80pc confidence. In southeast Europe, it sees above-average wind and precipitation, but above average temperatures only far to the east — also with 80pc confidence.
For December, wind is forecast with 60pc confidence to be strong in southeast Europe but weak in northwest Europe, with precipitation following the same pattern. Temperatures are projected to be above-average only in southeast Europe.
In January and February, Metdesk's confidence falls to 20pc. In January, the firm sees above-average temperatures in northern Europe, weak wind in northwest Europe, and low precipitation across most of the continent. In February, temperatures are set to be higher than average across most of western and southern Europe. Southeast Europe is likely to see above-average wind and precipitation, while northern Europe will experience below-average wind and precipitation.
