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Eyes averted from the prize in Venezuela

  • Märkte: Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 17.10.25

The US is stepping up threats of military action against Caracas while also easing economic restrictions on it, write Haik Gugarats and Carlos Camacho

The US is considering strikes on Venezuelan soil and sea just days after opposition leader Maria Corina Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize, highlighting the warring currents over the South American crude producer. But neither event looks set to imminently shift Venezuela's political leadership or its energy trade.

US president Donald Trump on 15 October publicly weighed military strikes inside Venezuela and said he authorised covert CIA operations in that country. "We are certainly looking at land now because we've got the sea under control," Trump said. The US has a naval task force of at least five ships off Venezuela's coast that since early September has destroyed five boats allegedly carrying drugs in international waters, killing 27 people.

Caracas complained to the UN security council last week that it had evidence an "armed attack by the [US] against Venezuela may occur in the very near future", and this week protested against incursions by US B-52 bombers in its airspace. But the US force of about 3,500 Marines and 3,400 naval personnel would fall far short of the number needed for a full-scale invasion, Washington-based think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies says. At least 48,000 soldiers would be needed for a ground invasion, it estimates.

And opinions on a Venezuela strategy are divided within the Trump administration. Secretary of state Marco Rubio has led a harder line, while presidential special envoy Ric Grenell — who in February was key in freeing US hostages held in Venezuela — is still pushing for peaceful engagement. The White House's reaction to Machado's award sent clearer signals. Communications director Steven Cheung complained about it and Trump, while he reposted Machado's message of thanks for his support, also shared Russian president Vladimir Putin's criticism of the Nobel prize committee's choice and praise of Trump.

Machado has been in hiding in Venezuela since the last presidential election in July 2024, when she was barred from running and president Nicolas Maduro claimed a third term over her proxy despite international condemnation. The prize should keep Machado safe, "since the cost of detaining her has now risen", consultancy Teneo political analyst Nick Watson says. "However, the award will not necessarily be a catalyst for regime change." And it could make it harder for her to call openly for US military intervention in Venezuela. The opposition has a detailed plan for opening Venezuela to foreign energy investment if handed the keys to government, but some military analysts argue a limited US intervention would mostly open a power vacuum for guerrillas and drug traffickers to fill.

Contradictory signals

And despite an increase in its bellicose rhetoric, the US has eased some restrictions on doing business in Venezuela — a move at odds with the opposition's request for the US to step up economic pressure on Maduro. Trinidad and Tobago again has a licence from the US that allows it to resume developing a major gas field in Venezuelan waters just across its maritime border, the Caribbean islands' attorney general, John Jeremie, said last week.

US major Chevron continues to export Venezuelan crude to the US, as it has done since Washington reinstated its sanctions waiver in August. About 131,000 b/d went to the US from Venezuela in September, out of a total 968,000 b/d of exports. China, the largest single buyer of Venezuela's discounted sanctioned crude, took 359,000 b/d, according to trade analytics platform Kpler. The US has threatened secondary sanctions on Venezuelan crude buyers, but has so far imposed none. And Russia is currently Venezuela's main supplier of naphtha used to dilute its extra-heavy crude, sending 69,000 b/d in September and October.


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