The EU has exported slightly more non-durum wheat on the year in July-November ― given missing data from Poland in the latest updates ― but exports remained below the five-year average for the bloc, according to European Commission data.
Wheat exports have increased slightly for the rest of the EU in the 2025-26 (July-June) marketing year when excluding Polish exports from previous years. Commission data have not included Polish wheat exports since 21 September. Soft wheat exports from the rest of the EU reached 9.29mn t as of 30 November, compared with 9.24mn t last season, although still below the average for the period in 2020-24 for the rest of the EU at 11.4mn t.
The EU exported 9.66mn t of wheat, including limited available Polish soft wheat export data, by the end of November in 2025-26, down from 10.14mn t a year earlier, and the whole bloc's five-year average of 12.6mn t by this time in the season in 2020-24.
The preliminary data showed fewer EU exports on the year without the latest data from Poland, which has been one of the EU's largest wheat exporters in recent years, making up more than 10pc of the EU's soft wheat exports in 2020-24.
EU wheat exports are set to continue facing strong competition this season with other exporters, some of which could see a record harvest. Argentina and Australia are forecast to see record crops. Australia is expected to produce 36mn t, up from 34.1mn t in the previous year, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Argentina is expected to produce as much as 24.5mn t, up from 18.5mn t in 2024-25, according to the USDA.
Algeria's recent milling wheat tender has set the stage for competition among origins to further develop. EU Black Sea and Argentinian new crop wheat are likely to be delivered to Algeria, despite the longer distance and higher freight rates for Argentinian wheat.
