US phosphate market participants have mixed opinions on how much spring grower demand to expect following a lackluster fall, even as affordability improves and projections for next spring's corn planting remain over 90mn acres.
DAP and MAP prices this year at the New Orleans, Louisiana, port and further inland were well above year-earlier levels after import tariffs deterred offshore suppliers. Higher prices, supported by a steep drop in imports, led to most domestic growers significantly minimizing their phosphate purchases and applications this fall. But as the near-term price outlook begins to soften with the anticipated arrival of fresh imports early next year, traders still seem skeptical of how much spring demand there will be.
Nola DAP prices in 2025 averaged $690/st fob, $128/st higher than the 2024 average price, while MAP prices at the port averaged $688/st for the same period, $78/st higher than the year-earlier average price.
DAP and MAP imports into the US for July through September totaled 159,000t, down by 71pc from the same period in 2024 and 69pc lower than the five year average, according to data from the US Census Bureau. But including additional October-December vessel information, imports could total roughly 493,000t, according to Argus estimates, only 51pc lower than a year earlier.
It there was 20pc demand destruction in the fall that left large volumes of phosphate in warehouses, the US supply outlook may be higher than initially expected heading into spring, according to a trader.
Still, traders over recent months have expressed mixed expectations for spring demand, including headwinds such as increasing phosphate production costs and unfavorable affordability fundamentals.
With the surprise removal of US import tariffs on phosphate in November, offshore suppliers were quick to line up vessels for winter delivery that would ease spring supply concerns and better balance US supply-demand fundamentals. As a result, Nola DAP and MAP prices dropped, with DAP at $616/st fob Nola and MAP at $617.50/st fob for the week ended 18 December.
With another round of spring planting just around the corner, growers will need to make up for phosphate applications that were skipped in the fall. Just last month, the US Department of Agriculture forecast that roughly 95mn acres of corn will be planted this spring, down from 98.7mn acres in 2025 but still ahead of 91.5mn acres in 2024.
There was slackened fall demand, but it seems a new page flip is inevitable in 2026, according to Itafos president David Delaney.
US market wary of global supply tightness
The recent downward pressure that has taken hold in the phosphate market could be tempered by a strained global supply outlook and elevated feedstock costs. Phosphate producers will often scale back marginal production in the face of higher variable costs, like sulfur and ammonia, if margins are compressed.
In mid-December, North American fertilizer producer Mosaic announced it will idle SSP production in Brazil because of increasing sulfur prices, just days after the global market caught wind of China's intention to not export certain phosphate products until August 2026, also a result of elevated sulfur costs as well as domestic supply concerns.
These actions, though occurring outside of the US, tighten the global supply outlook for the first half of 2026. This would be a key period for US traders to secure phosphate for customers who deferred applications from the fall to the spring, but it could occur amid rising global demand that would boost competition for phosphate volumes.
Rising costs alongside elevated ammonia prices also increase the likelihood that Mosaic or Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien could trim domestic phosphate output early next year. Nutrien is already conducting a strategic review of its phosphate assets expected to be ready in 2026. And a lack of Chinese exports coupled with higher production costs could keep phosphate prices elevated, potentially causing US grower demand to be lower than the previous spring or below-average, even as they need to replenish soil nutrients.
