Ammonium sulfate prices appear primed to rise in the first half of 2026, supported by rising feedstock costs and tight global supply.
Persistent supply constraints in Europe coupled with elevated feedstock costs are adding upward pressure on amsul prices that is unlikely to ease soon. Ammonia and sulfur, key inputs for amsul production, are hovering near multi-year highs. Buyers and sellers project the first-quarter Tampa sulfur contract to rise to $475-520/long tonne (lt) delivered, from $310/lt del, which could increase amsul production costs by roughly $40-50/st or more depending on the grade.
Initial fourth-quarter domestic amsul offers in the US Corn Belt were about $20-25/st higher than the same period last year. Some producers, who held back on releasing offers, are now quoting prices roughly $40-50/st above last year's initial fourth-quarter offer levels. At the same time, ammonia prices are up about $90/t cfr year over year, and sulfur costs have surged by nearly $194/lt del. The increase in amsul offers sparked more buying as customers sought to secure product ahead of further price hikes anticipated in the first quarter of 2026.
Major amsul producer IOC shut down operations due to surging feedstock costs but restarted production earlier this month. Similar pressures could affect domestic caprolactam producers as high sulfur costs ripple through the nylon value chain. Sulfuric acid is a critical input for caprolactam, and with margins already thin, further cost inflation could prompt producers to adjust operating rates.
The US tariff exemptions on amsul, among most other fertilizers, announced in early November had little impact on prices because European producers faced tight granular supply and could not ramp up exports even though economics to the US have improved. The US imported around 1.2mn t of amsul in the 2024-25 fertilizer year, with around 48pc of total imports coming from the European Union, according to the US Census Bureau. Low caprolactam margins in the EU made amsul production less profitable, compounded by planned and unplanned outages, while Chinese material rapidly gained share in Europe's domestic market. However, carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) costs could slow Chinese imports into Europe, giving regional producers a chance to regain domestic market share.
On ammonia, another key feedstock for certain amsul producers like IOC and Martin Resources in the US, the January Tampa contract settled at $585/t cfr. Most US ammonia prices eased after fall applications dwindled. Still, ammonia could remain tight due to production outages in the third and fourth quarters that left some producers struggling to meet commitments as demand for applications spike in the first half of November.
Affordability remains front of mind as growers navigate high input costs and narrow crop margins from the past fertilizer season, prompting a cautious and risk-averse approach to fertilizer purchases. President Donald Trump's farmer aid package eased some financial pressures on growers and has supported more fertilizer spending, especially with the US Department of Agriculture projecting strong corn acreage for the coming season. Market participants attest that feedstock volatility and supply constraints continue to shape the amsul market going into 2026. As spring demand returns, offers are expected to incorporate higher production costs from elevated sulfur prices, paving the way for bullishness in the amsul market headed into the new year.
