Pakistan entered 2026 with a month-on-month increase in DAP stocks as domestic offtake dropped off seasonally, National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC) data show. Healthy January opening inventories will limit the need for fresh imports this quarter.
Pakistan opened December with 192,000t of DAP in stocks, producing 76,000t and importing 30,000t that month.
Offtake last month was a third of November figures at 80,000t as wheat applications concluded in December.
This brought 2025 offtake to 1.34mn t of DAP, around 300,000t below the 2020-24 average. Uncertainty surrounding future crop yields and government support, fragile farmer finances and high phosphate prices limited farmers' interest in DAP last year.
Imports in 2025 totalled 620,000t, below the 835,000t 2020-24 average. But this was partly offset by an increase in domestic production to 837,000t, above the 783,000t five-year average. High international DAP prices deterred some importers' purchases, with domestic producer Fauji stepping into the supply gap. Domestically manufactured supply sells at a premium in Pakistan.
The underwhelming 2025 offtake allowed stocks to end the year at 219,000t, above the 187,000t five-year average and a comfortable level at which to begin the new year. Importers are now focusing on selling high stocks of DAP in a bearish domestic market. Fauji recently cut its domestic prices to around 13,400 rupees/bag ($48/bag) ex-Karachi and other distributors have followed suit with some private importers selling at as low as Rs12,500/bag ex-Karachi. This could limit fresh imports for this quarter.
The first quarter is the off-season for Pakistan, despite some maize and sugar cane applications.
NFDC estimates lower first-quarter offtake at 251,000t and 183,000t in domestic production. Pakistani DAP imports will total 111,000t in January, according to Argus line-up data. If no more imports are lined up for the first quarter, this alone could see the country's stocks rising to 262,000t by the end of the October-March rabi season.
