A potential overhaul of Venezuela's crude sector and a subsequent rapid recovery of its export capacity could deepen Mexico's loss of market share and weigh on the country's economic growth in 2026, the Mexican institute of finance executives (IMEF) said.
Mexico's GDP is expected to grow by 1.3pc in 2026, according to estimates, but several risks could hamper this growth, including a shift in crude flows if Venezuela attracts fresh investment for its oil sector.
Venezuela could draw capital back to its upstream sector if political stability improves and operators gain stable property rights, IMEF president Gabriela Gutierrez said. "Venezuela could become more attractive for oil investment than Mexico, which has already seen crude producers reduce their interest," she said.
Mexico outpaces Venezuela in crude production, with Pemex and a slew of smaller private-sector companies producing about 1.6mn b/d in 2025. State-owned Pemex — Mexico's only company allowed to export crude — exported about 600,000 b/d from January-November 2025, according to the latest company data.
Venezuela's crude output was 934,000 b/d in November, according to an average of Opec secondary sources including Argus. Production has fallen from more than 3mn b/d in the early 2000s, largely because of the impact of falling investment and US sanctions. Chevron, the second-biggest US oil producer, operates in Venezuela with state-owned PdV under a special waiver from US sanctions and imported about 120,000 b/d of crude from Venezuela to the US in December, according to data from Kpler ship tracking.
Venezuela has been increasing exports as US policy shifts have allowed more crude to enter the market.
Both countries would need to invest tens of billions of dollars to raise output significantly, and the process to reap the rewards would take five to 10 years, according to IMEF's Gutierrez. Mexico faces uncertainty over how it will finance new upstream spending, as the government has limited room to support heavily indebted Pemex.
Oil companies have also flagged risks when considering investment in Venezuela, pointing out the unstable political environment in the country. A meaningful turnaround will demand costly repairs to basic energy infrastructure covering everything from pipelines to power supplies, as well as access to the latest equipment and a skilled labor force that is ready to work. US producers will also need clarity around legal frameworks regarding contracts, as well as sharply higher oil prices to justify the massive investments needed.
Venezuela's crude reserves are a major differentiator. Mexico holds around 7.5bn bl of proven reserves, while Venezuela reports more than 300bn bl. Even conservative specialist estimates place Venezuelan reserves at over 10 times larger than Mexico's estimated reserves, Gutierrez said.
Mexico's decision to reduce crude exports and focus on refining has cost the country market share, IMEF's economic studies chair Victor Herrera said. "We export less every year, while Venezuela is doing everything possible to export more", he added, noting that directing crude to national refining has generated losses, worsening Pemex's financial position.
