European companies that have historically imported cement and clinker from outside the EU are grappling with the risks of importing these products this year because their counterparties are unable to verify their emissions footprint before 2027.
The CBAM policy seeks to encourage producers to report their actual carbon intensity and get this verified by officials. Imports from companies that are not verified would be subject to a charge based on a default value that would apply to any imports from that origin. These default values are significantly higher than the average producer's actual emissions with the aim of discouraging companies from using them instead of working to reduce their carbon footprint.
But even companies that wish to report their actual emissions cannot yet complete this process. Verification will not be possible during 2026, as declarants need data for the whole reporting year, German emissions trading authority DEHSt has told Argus.
Provisional — such as quarterly — verification is not provided for in CBAM regulations, and for CBAM compliance based on individual data, "only the complete, verified emissions report for the respective calendar year is valid", a DEHSt spokesperson said.
CBAM certificates will start circulating from February 2027 and importers are required to surrender certificates for 2026 emissions by 30 September 2027. They can verify data from the start of 2027 until this deadline.
But while cement makers are confident that plants wishing to export to the EU will be diligent in seeking out this verification in the coming months, there is some concern whether national authorities even have the capacity to get enough certifiers accredited in time for all declarants to meet the 30 September 2027 deadline.
This opens a significant amount of risk for anyone importing from outside the EU now, since they cannot guarantee they will not be subject to the punitive default values.
The "verification process seems to be difficult to achieve during this current year," but the CBAM costs on a per tonne basis will be "criminal" if companies are ultimately forced to use the default values, one cement maker said.
But some companies are optimistic that there will be an opportunity to adjust declarations when verified values are available prior to the surrender of certificates next year.
"Obviously there is still some risk, as an importer may discover that the burden is a few euros higher than they originally thought", but this should not be the €60-70/t ($71.31-$83.19/t) it would be without emissions verification, one trader said.
At least one buyer is only willing to import cement from within the EU or from exporters from outside the bloc that are owned by European cement groups, the trader said, making the calculation that European-owned firms will have reliable data and can be counted on to follow the necessary verification process once it is available.
This hesitancy is keeping a lid on prices in some key export markets, like Turkey.
