Eight core Opec+ members have again reaffirmed their decision to keep their crude output steady until the end of March, the Opec secretariat said today.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan in early November agreed to pause a gradual unwind of existing production cuts for the first three months of 2026.
This decision was reconfirmed at their subsequent two meetings in late November and in early January.
The eight unwound 2.88mn b/d worth of cuts between April and December 2025, and have another 1.24mn b/d of voluntary cuts still to unwind.
But actual production from the eight increased by around 1.9mn b/d between March and December 2025, according to Argus estimates.
The eight reiterated today that their decision to keep output steady in January-March of this year is based on "seasonality," referring to expectations of weaker demand in the first quarter.
But the pause is also allowing producers to assess market conditions at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty relating to key oil producers Venezuela, Russia, and Iran, among others.
What the group does beyond the first quarter will need to be decided at its next meeting on 1 March. But the group has repeatedly said it retains the flexibility to increase, decrease or keep output steady, should market conditions require.
Today's meeting came as front month Ice Brent futures rose above $70/bl for the first time in four months last week amid rising tensions between Iran and the US.
US President Donald Trump has been threatening intervention against Iran ever since protests broke out in the country last month, prompting a brutal crackdown by the Iranian state.
The US has also been moving key naval assets to the Mideast Gulf region in recent days and weeks, raising fears of an imminent US attack on Iran.
Iranian officials have threatened immediate retaliation in response to any direct attack, which could potentially include steps to obstruct the critically important strait of Hormuz.
Today's statement from the Opec secretariat made no mention of Iran or the ongoing tensions.
