US shale crude output growth is forecast to slow in 2026 as companies run up against efficiency constraints and consolidation, but it may still be too early to call a plateau, according to panelists speaking at Argus' Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas, today.
"I would be slightly more optimistic," said Frederic Lasserre, global head of market research and analysis at Gunvor. "We always underestimate the impact of productivity gains."
The consolidation from a number of large mergers among shale producers has yet to deliver all the productivity benefits many expect, Lasserre said, while artificial intelligence may also help improve well recovery rates.
But Amarpreet Singh, energy analyst at Barclays, cautioned that unit productivity is on the ropes in the US shale patch as the sector matures. "We might not be there but we are very close to the peak," Singh said.
The panel had different views on whether the US economy has managed to escape the effects of the broad range of on-again/off-again tariffs announced by President Donald Trump in the past year.
"It does seem like we dodged a bullet, especially when it comes to the effect of tariffs," said Singh. "There are a lot of other cyclical indicators that are suggesting that we are actually seeing some momentum on the upside, which is quite the opposite of what we were talking about 12 months ago."
But Lasserre cautioned that tariffs were still top of his list when it came to risks for economic growth. "It can take a long time before you see the impact," he said.
