An influx of LNG imports into Spain and the UK, in combination with weaker domestic consumption, has supported gas flows to other European countries where the supply balance is more fragile.
LNG deliveries to the UK and Spain have been firm in recent weeks. Spain imported 604,000t of LNG in the week ending 2 February — the highest for any single week since March 2023, data from trade analytics firm Kpler show. And UK LNG imports last week were also the highest since March 2023, at 693,000t.
Strong LNG deliveries and weak demand in the UK and Spain have left more gas available for export to Belgium and France, respectively. This has in turn strengthened the supply balance in the receiving countries, allowing more gas to be shipped elsewhere in mainland Europe.
UK exports to Belgium on the Interconnector pipeline ramped up to 223 GWh/d on 4-15 February from net exports of 5 GWh/d earlier this year. Flows to Belgium reached a three-month high of 302GWh on 10 February.
The rise in UK exports to Belgium coincided with a switch to net exports from Belgium to the Netherlands, which averaged 98 GWh/d on 4-14 February from net imports of 105 GWh/d earlier this year. Firms in the Netherlands may have turned to Belgian inflows to compensate for markedly low gas stocks, which stood at 15.6pc of capacity on Sunday morning. The UK cannot export directly to the Netherlands because the BBL pipeline is currently pointing towards the UK and the pipeline cannot easily switch flow direction.
More gas coming into the Netherlands has supported strong re-exports to Germany. Net flows to Germany stepped up to 470 GWh/d on 4-15 February — since flows switched direction at the Bene virtual interconnection point — from 423 GWh/d in the previous two weeks.
Further south, strong regasification from Spanish terminals in recent weeks allowed for a switch in flows at the Pirineos point on the French-Spanish border. Spain exported gas to France on 30 January for the first time since 29 October, with exports averaging a net 33 GWh/d during 30 January-15 February.
Strong supply availability in France, in combination with a wide negative Peg-THE day-ahead basis market, allowed firms to export an average of 42 GWh/d to Germany on the Obergailbach interconnector on 2-15 February. Exports have been sustained for 14 consecutive days, the longest consecutive period since March 2024. The THE every-day price held at an average €4.28/MWh premium to the Peg on those dates, reaching a two-year peak of €5.53/MWh on 5 February. The route is rarely used because French exit and German entry capacity can only be booked on a day-ahead basis at a combined cost of €2.89/MWh.
Stronger flows from France and the Netherlands into Germany have helped make up for slow German LNG sendout. Regasification across German terminals fell to 210 GWh/d on 2-15 February from 368 GWh/d earlier in the year, as adverse weather conditions at Mukran have prevented unloadings since 3 February, causing sendout from the facility to stop.
Re-exports from Germany to neighbouring eastern and central European markets stepped down to 498 GWh/d over the past week, from 726 GWh/d in the previous week, as milder weather in Poland and Austria weighed on demand for additional supply.
