With the clock ticking and supplies dwindling after LPG exports from the Mideast Gulf were choked at the strait of Hormuz, India is scrambling to secure emergency cargoes.
The country faces an imminent LPG shortage: it holds stocks covering only around 10 days, and imports have slowed to a trickle since the 28 February outbreak of conflict, leaving the government to confront an urgent supply crisis. India imported nearly 21mn t of LPG through the straits in 2025 — the equivalent of roughly 40 VLGC cargoes each month — data from Kpler show, underscoring the scale of exposure to this key chokepoint.
As many as 60pc of restaurants could shut within 2-3 days if commercial LPG cylinder deliveries are not restored, the National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI) warned. Around 85pc of the country's restaurants rely on commercial LPG as their primary cooking fuel.
Authorities have attempted to curb the fallout by ramping up domestic LPG production, restricting sales to commercial customers, and imposing a 25-day minimum interval between domestic cylinder bookings. But these stopgap measures have provided only limited relief.
New Delhi, led by prime minister Narendra Modi, has reportedly secured 1mn t of LPG from the US to help bridge the supply shortfall, market participants said, although the delivery timeline remains unclear.
Meanwhile, Indian state-owned companies have snapped up evenly split shipments of around 46,000t for mid-March to first-half April delivery at premiums of $350-400/t to the April CP, traders said, to meet immediate demand. Before the near suspension of flows through the strait of Hormuz, a similar March-delivery cargo would have fetched only $30-40/t. Shipments for the second-half April were procured at April CP +$280/t, reflecting the steep premiums buyers are now paying to secure prompt cargoes.
With supply from its nearest source disrupted, Indian importers have widened their search for alternative suppliers. The MGC Astor is en route to Haldia after loading at Bahia Blanca, Kpler data show, while another two similar shipments loading from the US and possibly Argentina for April delivery into India had reportedly been secured. Smaller parcels for second-half April delivery into South Asia were marketed at $145-165/t against the April CP, traders said.
India's domestic LPG production meets close to 40pc of national demand, underscoring its heavy reliance on imported supply — now severely disrupted.
