Egyptian urea sales are still taking place for cargoes loading next month, while production rates remain unchanged as LNG deliveries continue.
Egyptian urea production continues to run at full rates, despite tighter gas availability, producers told Argus.
Israel's suspension of gas exports following the outbreak of war with Iran has removed the equivalent of about one LNG cargo every four days from Egypt's supply balance.
Egypt secured three LNG cargoes for mid-March delivery earlier this month, before implementing broader energy-saving measures. The government appears focused on curbing domestic demand, rather than paying elevated spot prices, as it looks to preserve foreign currency reserves, contain inflation and maintain supply stability.
Although urea plants have remained unaffected by the measures so far, producers acknowledge that the industry is not fully insulated from wider gas management policies, raising the risk that output could come under pressure if supply constraints persist.
Sales ongoing
Producers continue to conclude sales for urea loading in April, even as the end of March approaches, pointing to adequate availability.
No producer deals for urea loading in May have emerged so far.
Egyptian producers have reported selling about 260,000t of granular urea for January-April loading so far this year, against potential export availability of 1.4mn–1.6mn t over the same period.
In addition to the reported sales, Argus estimates that a further 200,000–250,000t — or potentially more — of March-loading Egyptian urea has already been placed into India and the US. These volumes will help to narrow — but not eliminate — the sizeable gap between reported and potential exports, and may point to comparatively high producer inventories or quantities sent to the domestic market.
Producers' sales reported this year include about 36,000t for January loading, 80,000t for February, around 84,000t for March and about 60,000t for April to date.
Domestic–export sales split
Egypt has 7.2mn–7.3mn t/yr of urea capacity and allocates a sizeable part of its output to the domestic market, leaving around 350,000–400,000 t/month for export.
The country exported an average of about 4.5mn t/yr of urea in 2023–25. The domestic season typically peaks in June-September.
Output fluctuates on both a monthly and annual basis, reflecting planned turnarounds, variations in gas availability — particularly during the summer peak power period — and intermittent disruptions to gas flows from Israel in recent years.
