The war in the Middle East has caused phosphate prices to Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay to rise sharply this year. Imports have been matching previous years but will probably slow as affordability concerns take hold.
Argentinian DAP/MAP prices reached $825/t cfr at the midpoint on 19 March, the highest since August 2022. The latest weekly assessment for Moroccan MAP would net forward to between the mid-$860s/t cfr and mid-$900s/t cfr. And the sale of a 40,000t cargo of Russian MAP for shipment to the Southern Cone in April-May last week would net forward to as high as the $910s/t cfr Argentina.
In the US, some DAP barge sales have probably been for re-export to the Southern Cone. The latest weekly DAP barge price assessment at $640-690/st fob Nola would probably equate to between the $740s/t cfr and $800s/t cfr Argentina, while the latest assessment for DAP was at $800/t cfr Argentina. MAP supply at Nola is tighter, keeping re-exports focused on DAP.
Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay imported an average of 599,000t of DAP/MAP/TSP in January-May during 2021-25, according to GTT data.
Suppliers have this year sold up to 488,000t of DAP/MAP/TSP on the spot market for shipment to Latin America excluding Brazil, Argus data show. Argus understands that most of this will go to Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay and is due to arrive before the end of May. This includes 95,000-100,000t of Saudi DAP/MAP, of which 55,000t is due to load at Yanbu on the Red Sea. The shipment for the remaining tonnes is not yet clear while the strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
Imports will probably catch up with previous years. At least five importers are understood to remain in the market to buy an estimated 25,000-30,000t of DAP/MAP/TSP for loading in April-May.
But grain prices in the region are not rising to match fertilizers. Importers are reluctant to accept higher levels for phosphates, while poor affordability is making farmers consider skipping applications.
Last week's higher MAP levels translate to over $1,000-1,020/t delivered to Argentinian farmers against $875-900/t delivered the week before. And cheaper TSP is unlikely to replace DAP/MAP because its lack of nitrogen makes it less attractive to corn farmers.
Some farmers have begun carrying out soil studies and hope to reduce phosphate applications. While yields for the last corn crop were high, the nutrient quality was low. A poor quality outlook for the next corn crop will probably discourage farmers' phosphate purchases.
Farmers will probably delay remaining purchases, hoping for a drop in costs or a rise in crop prices. This will prompt importers to remain cautious.
