US suspension-grade polyvinyl chloride (S-PVC) prices have risen sharply since the onset of the Mideast Gulf war, driven by soaring international demand. But US exporters will have to compete with cheaper carbide-based PVC production in China, which may temper total exports into Asia.
US S-PVC export prices rose to a $1,000-1,050/t fas Houston range during the week ended 27 March, up by just over 55pc from 27 February, the day before the conflict broke out in the Mideast Gulf, according to Argus data. Chinese carbide-based S-PVC prices rose to a $815-900/t fob China range at the end of March, up by only 36.1pc during the same period.
Carbide-based PVC, derived from coal instead of ethylene, is cheaper to produce and is insulated from supply shocks to oil and natural gas.
US export demand could erode because of this, as Chinese carbide-based exports become relatively cheaper than US ethylene-based PVC, according to participants on the sidelines of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers' International Petrochemical Conference in San Antonio, Texas, this week.
More than 80pc of Chinese integrated PVC production is carbide-based, according to Argus estimates.
Chinese carbide-based operating rates are estimated by Argus at around 68pc. In fact, a further 10pc hike in operating rates to meet growing demand could replace all of the more expensive US ethylene-based exports.
The US exported 621,050t of PVC to Vietnam in 2025, comprising 11pc of all US exports that year and making Vietnam the US' second-largest global buyer outside of Canada.
This demand could be captured by Chinese exports if carbide-based prices in China remain more competitive to buyers than US ethylene-based. Additionally, this could dampen domestic prices for US producers, who — outside of ethylene costs, which have risen by 66pc since the beginning of the war — are comparatively insulated from rising energy costs in Asia and Europe.
However, US exporters could pivot to shipping ethylene dichloride (EDC) instead of PVC. Feedstock EDC from the US is already in great demand from producers in India and could be used as an alternative to lower-quality carbide PVC, which has limited applications.
