The war in the Middle East is strengthening the case for a transition away from fossil fuels, but countries must balance the crisis' shorter-term consequences on energy costs with longer-term policies.
The situation will spur energy shifts, as others crises have done before, IEA executive director Fatih Birol said this week, pointing to increased fuel efficiency in vehicles, the rise of biofuels in Brazil and an increase in nuclear power in Europe and some countries in Asia-Pacific after the oil crises in the 1970s.
"I believe there will be a major response on the energy side, and we are more fortunate now because we have many available technologies which are cost effective," he said.
Turkey's environment minister Murat Kurum, the upcoming Cop 31 climate summit president, said this week that the crisis has "clearly shown us that fossil fuels do not guarantee energy supply security" and countries should invest in "alternative energy sources" to support stability, resilient and clean development. He recalled the agreement taken in Dubai in 2023, when almost 200 countries agreed on "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems" and to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency rates by 2030. Kurum highlighted how important the need for alternative energy sources and economic diversification is now, considering national circumstances.
"Doubling down on fossil fuels is not the answer to that crisis," Australia's climate and energy minister Chris Bowen said on 21 April, the same day UK energy minister Ed Miliband said "the era of fossil fuels is over".
"In response to recent events, our actions must be faster, deeper and more wide-ranging to protect energy security", Ed Miliband said as he laid out measures to cut electricity costs. He said it will be irresponsible "to carry on with business as usual", because there are compelling clean alternatives to fossil fuels.
EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said more actions need to be taken to protect citizens and industries from future shocks, saying the current crisis "must be a wake-up call". But he cautioned about the costs being felt now and the long-term effects the crisis will have on member states' economies as countries find themselves having to balance short-term measures with longer term policies.
Jorgensen warned against "burning" public money in fossil fuels subsidies, and suggested looking at targeted measures delivering "double value", such as offering support to change from boilers to heat pumps or electric vehicle (EV) leasing. He also said the crisis should not derail long term signals deployed alongside climate policies.
Some countries in Asia-Pacific, including South Korea and Vietnam, have turned to increased coal-fired power generation to reduce LNG consumption, as the disruptions in the Mideast Gulf have cut off around 20pc of global LNG supply. Japan has moved to lift restrictions on coal-fired power plants until March 2027. Globally, power generation from fossil fuels fell in the first month since the maritime traffic halted through the strait of Hormuz, according to Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta.
But the IEA's Birol warned the longer the conflict goes on, the more severe the effects will be.
Long-term strategy resilience is important because short-term reactions are always costly, Indian think-tank senior modelling specialist Niti Aayog Venugopal Mothkoor told Non-profit World Resources Institute (WRI). India is looking at electrification in terms of decarbonisation and as an important strategy to support resilience, because electricity can be produced domestically and most of the renewable resources are located in the country, he said.
Long term policies to shift to cleaner energy cut emissions and contribute to bolster energy security and help insulate countries from fossil fuel price swings.
"Long term strategies are indispensable in an unstable world," he said.
"At the end of the day, we have to take steps to help countries to transition towards clean energies and in terms of phasing out fossil fuels," Turkey's Kurum said this week.
