Mexico's trade balance in goods swung to a hefty $5.93bn surplus in March, amid a strong pick-up in manufacturing exports.
The balance, reported by statistics agency Inegi, swung from the $463mn deficit in February after narrowing from a $6.48bn deficit in January. The March surplus also far surpassed the $1.03bn surplus forecast by Mexican bank Banorte.
The swing to a surplus in March was led by widening of the non-oil trade surplus to US$8.32bn in March from US$1.55bn the previous month.
Meanwhile, Mexico's oil-trade deficit expanded only slightly to $2.39bn in March from $2.01bn the previous month despite volatility in global oil prices hitting markets caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
Total exports rose to $70.7bn in March from $56.9bn in February, with oil-related exports up at $1.71bn from $1.47bn. Crude exports increased to 495,000 b/d in March from 585,000 b/d in February, well below the 827,000 b/d recorded in March 2025. Non-oil exports rose to $69bn in March from $55.36bn the prior month.
Manufacturing shipments increased to $64.7bn in March from $51.8bn in February, with automotive up to $17.4bn from $13.6bn in February.
Imports totaled $64.8bn in March compared with $57.3bn in the prior month, with oil imports at $4.1bn in March compared with $3.5bn the prior month and non-oil imports at $60.7bn, up from $53.8bn the prior month.
Mexican bank Banco Base suggests the outlook has worsened due to comments by economy minister Marcelo Ebrard during meetings with Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum and US trade representative Jamieson Greer.
Ebrard indicated the review's goal is to reduce tariffs, not eliminate them, noting "a world without tariffs is unlikely to return."
Banco Base considers this bad news for several reasons: Mexico enters the renegotiation with a weak stance, more willing to concede to the Trump administration than to secure favorable terms; and continued tariffs could be a bargaining chip to avoid addressing other US demands related to the rule of law and the opening of strategic sectors.
In addition, said Banco Base, "Continued tariffs could lead to a sustained decline in affected sectors like steel and automotive, whose exports have fallen due to sectoral tariffs."
Banco Base also mentions stricter rules of origin, which would further harm the automotive and steel industries. These measures would remove incentives for foreign companies in Mexico, slowing foreign direct investment growth.
