War’s effect on US steam coal exports muted in March

US thermal coal exports continued to lag year-earlier levels at the end of last quarter, even as the onset of the US-Israeli war with Iran and concerns about gas shortages caused global coal prices and demand to spike.

An estimated 4.29mn short tons (3.89mn metric tonnes) of US steam coal and anthracite departed ports in March, preliminary figures released by the Commerce Department last week show. That was down by 1.9pc from a year earlier.

The Commerce Department data suggest there may have been some boost from greater international interest in coal in the immediate aftermath of the war in the Middle East, but that most of the effect was either limited or delayed. March's year-on-year decrease was the smallest since thermal coal exports consistently started declining in May 2025.

Shipping data from analytics firms AXS Marine and Kpler indicate US steam coal exports last month may have been above year-earlier levels.

Some producers have said recently that they made additional export sales for shipments later in 2026 and even 2027 when prices jumped in the immediate aftermath of the war. They also noted that seaborne markets in April and May were less attractive, and some companies expected continued price volatility in reaction to developments in the conflict.

US thermal coal exports in March were skewed by a 14pc drop in shipments to India — the US' largest steam coal trading partner — as well as fewer exports to Pakistan, Brazil, Spain, Indonesia and Italy. Shipments to most other countries were higher in March than they had been a year earlier.

March was the second straight month that US thermal coal exports to India declined from year-earlier levels. While coal held a competitive advantage over petroleum coke for cement makers in India, supply of Northern Appalachian coal last quarter was tight.

Shippers of Northern Appalachian coal also appear to have shifted focus to buyers closer to the Atlantic basin. US thermal coal exports out of Baltimore, Maryland — the main exit point for international Northern Appalachian coal — to Morocco, Egypt, the Netherlands and the Dominican Republic increased.

In the first quarter as a whole, US thermal coal exports to most countries were lower than they had been a year earlier. That said, US exports to Morocco, the Netherlands, Japan, Egypt, Germany and the Dominican Republic were all higher in March than in the same month of 2025, Commerce data show.

US thermal coal exports for the entire first quarter of 2026 fell to 10.4mn st from 11.7mn st.

Nearly all of the decrease in thermal coal exports was associated with bituminous steam coal, which fell to 3.64mn st in March and 8.56mn st for the first quarter from 3.95mn st and 10.3mn st a year earlier.

Sub-bituminous coal exports rose to 556,949st in March, the most since September 2024, and 1.63mn st in the first quarter from 356,452st and 1.24mn st a year earlier.

More than half of the sub-bituminous coal exported in March was en route to South Korea. Another 197,570st was listed as going to Singapore and trace amounts went to Belgium and Mexico. South Korea also was the primary destination for US sub-bituminous coal exports in the first quarter, followed by Japan, Singapore and a handful of other countries.

US shipments of anthracite, lignite and other non-metallurgical coal also increased from a year earlier in March and in the first quarter.

In addition, metallurgical coal exports climbed from year-earlier levels. This primarily reflected increased production.

Overall US coal exports edged up to 9.34mn st in March from a little under 9.3mn st a year earlier. But for the first quarter as a whole, exports fell to 23.7mn st from 24.4mn st.

By Courtney Schlisserman

US steam coal exports by continent st