Argus has revised up its 2026-27 Ukrainian wheat production forecast to 24.1mn t after a virtual crop tour showed stronger yield potential in southern and eastern regions.
The new estimate is 3.4pc up from 2025-26 production and up from the 23.2mn t forecast in April. The nationwide yield is expected to be 4.73 t/ha, up by 6.3pc from the five-year average and 3.7pc higher on the year. The harvest area forecast is unchanged at 5.1mn ha. Projected output is also above the 22mn t average of the past four seasons.
The yield outlook is brighter than for last year, which was dimmed by drought in southern and eastern Ukraine. Better crop establishment and ample spring rain supported gains in regions including Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk. Yield prospects in central and western Ukraine remain robust and near record levels, reflecting stable conditions throughout the growing cycle.
Lower-than-average spring temperatures and recent rainfall slowed development in central and western areas. The bulk of the harvest there is expected to start on 10 July — about a week later than usual. Harvesting in southern Ukraine is likely to stay on schedule for a late-June start.
The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre forecasts unstable weather, with thunderstorms and heavy showers, across northern, western and central regions on 20-30 June. Humid conditions will maintain soil moisture for crops such as corn, but excessive rain during the grain-filling stage raises the risk of lodging and fungal disease. With reports of lower nitrogen use in some areas, high humidity could increase the share of feed-grade wheat at harvest.
