An energy crisis in the Mideast Gulf has not narrowed any of the key climate policy divisions, writes Georgia Gratton
Talks hosted by UN climate body the UNFCCC in Bonn, Germany that mark the halfway point between UN Cop climate summits closed this week with negotiations stalling on key items related to cutting emissions and financing climate resilience in developing nations. These will be pushed to Cop 31 in Antalya, Turkey in November, unless things move forward at a handful of intersessional meetings before then.
But progress was made this week to further the UNFCCC's just transition mechanism, which aims to ensure decarbonisation happens in an equitable manner. And implementing climate action gathered pace in Bonn under the Cop action agenda — a process that runs parallel to the talks and involves non-state actors.
No agreement was reached on mitigation or adaptation — cutting emissions and adjusting to the effects of climate change, respectively. Countries displayed "sharp differences" on the former, think-tank E3G said. Finance was the stumbling block for adaptation, as countries did not agree on including mention of a goal agreed at Cop 30 to triple finance for adaptation in the final conference text. "Countries have effectively pressed pause on a process that was supposed to help turn adaptation commitments into action," E3G policy adviser Ana Mulio Alvarez said.
But there was momentum on the issue that underpins climate change — transitioning away from fossil fuels. This is still not an official agenda topic, and the subject is fiercely opposed by several countries, including Saudi Arabia. But it remains on the priority list for many others. Australian energy minister Chris Bowen, who will become Cop 31 president of negotiations, called for "reducing fossil fuel reliance" in his opening speech at Bonn. Bowen, whose country is a major fossil fuel exporter, noted the "fragility of fossil fuel supply chains" — an issue highlighted by the recent closure of the Hormuz strait by the US-Iran war.
Countries and organisations have responded to the Brazilian Cop 30 presidency's decision to build a roadmap on the move away from fossil fuels, making contributions and submissions. Fossil fuel producer Brazil is preparing its own roadmap at president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's request, Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago told the Financial Times Climate and Impact Summit this week.
The final roadmap will be presented ahead of Cop 31 and will not represent consensus like the UNFCCC process, but a coalition of the willing. Although it is not universal, this approach could push climate action forward faster than Cop summits typically have. "Implementation has no consensus," Correa do Lago said at the Financial Times summit. But implementation is tied to finance, the lack of which is likely to slow the path for many developing countries.
Hurdles ahead
The talks in Bonn are technical, designed to ready the ground for decisions to be made at Cops, where ministers are present. But topics raised could bring further challenges at future climate meetings. Within the UNFCCC process, new discussions about trade — which involve the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism — represent a potential major obstacle at future meetings. And many countries this week expressed deep concern about the pushback from some delegations on the previously accepted climate science that serves as the basis for action.
The EU, UK, Japan and small island states underlined the importance of climate science. The science is "non-negotiable" and "we are deeply concerned about the increasing spread of confusing and purposefully misleading narratives and the threat to the integrity of information on climate change", the EU's representative said. UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell reminded countries that commitments "that respond to the science and the 1.5°C [Paris agreement] limit", as well as on climate finance, "are the baselines".
