Ukrainian farmers have accelerated the 2026-27 winter grain harvest, with barley yields reaching record highs and wheat yields remaining significantly above historical averages.
Farmers had harvested 318,650 hectares (ha) of barley, or 22pc of the 1.48mn ha forecast area, as of 13 July, according to data from the economy ministry. Barley output has reached 1.4mn t at an an average yield of 4.41 t/ha, a record at this stage of the campaign, beating the previous peak of 4.29 t/ha in 2021 and well above the 3.3-3.5 t/ha registered in 2023-25. Market participants said rapid progress and high yields are likely to increase immediate physical availability on the domestic market. The wheat harvest has reached 157,350ha, or 3pc of the 5.13mn ha forecast total, producing 615,740t at an average yield of 3.91 t/ha. The wheat yields are the second highest on record for this stage of harvesting, remaining well above the 2022-25 range and surpassed only by a bumper crop in 2021.
These early results support the Argus production forecast of 24.1mn t for the 2026-27 season, although high yields continue to raise concerns about potential protein dilution in the winter wheat crop. The rapeseed harvest has reached 76,970ha, or 6pc of the 1.32mn ha forecast area, with 149,070t collected at an average yield of 1.94 t/ha. The current yields are among the lowest for this stage of the campaign in five years, trailing the 2.20-2.30 t/ha recorded in 2021 and 2024. But these figures are not yet representative of the final outcome, given the limited progress of the harvest.
A wave of warm and dry weather is expected in most regions this week, according to the Ukrainian weather centre. Daytime temperatures in southern and eastern regions are forecast to reach 32-35°C, while central and western areas will see daily highs of 26-30°C. Dry conditions will help the rapid progress of the winter grain harvest across all regions, although the lack of significant rainfall may reduce soil moisture for spring crops such as corn and sunflowers, which are at critical stages of development.
Market participants said official figures continue to reflect a reporting lag, with real-time field progress estimated to be further ahead.
