Uruguay, Namibia, the Netherlands and Denmark are the only countries coming closer to achieving the annual global growth rates for renewable power capacity to 2030 needed to stay on track with limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C, as major emitters lag behind, according to Systems Change Lab — an initiative led by climate think-tank the World Resources Institute (WRI).
No country has increased solar and wind over a five-year period at the rate needed to hit targets compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, Systems Change Lab said.
The Paris agreement seeks to curb the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C limit. Its signatories recognised in 2023 "the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5°C".
Solar and wind need to account for 57-78pc of the global electricity mix by 2030, but only made up 17.4pc of global electricity generation, according to the group's State of Climate Action 2025 report. But Uruguay, Namibia, the Netherlands and Denmark achieved around three-quarters of the annual global growth rate required from 2025 to 2030.
In Uruguay, wind power generation rose to 32pc of the country's mix in 2018 from 1pc in 2013 — the fastest five-year renewable energy increase globally. In Namibia, solar grew to 39pc of electricity from 6pc in 2017-22, while solar and wind power rose to 45pc of electricity generation from 14pc between 2019 and 2024 in the Netherlands, according to Systems Change Lab. In Denmark, around 60pc of the country's electricity comes from wind, the highest share globally, it said.
Uruguay, Namibia, the Netherlands and Denmark accounted for 0.08pc, 0.03pc, 0.27pc and 0.07pc, respectively, of the world's total greenhouse gas emissions in 2024, according to the EU's Edgar data. In comparison, China accounted for 29pc of global emissions and the US for 11pc, according to Edgar data.
Even though China and the US — the world's two largest greenhouse gas emitters — build the most renewable energy capacity each year, solar and wind account for less than one-quarter of electricity generation in both countries, it said. "Other countries have both a large population and have achieved a high share of solar and wind in their national electricity mix, like Spain 42pc, Germany 45pc and the UK 36pc, but for those three countries, the growth took place over a longer period at slower rates," the group said.
Although the four countries' economies and geographies are vastly different, Systems Change Lab found that for all of them, energy security concerns — reliance on fossil fuel and power imports — helped the initial shift, while progress depended largely on long-term policies and stable investment conditions.
Political support meant that the policies were maintained over a long enough period to build up a critical speed, it said. Unlike Denmark, which started earlier than the other three countries, Uruguay and Namibia did not need to rely on subsidies because renewable costs have fallen and other options were expensive, but "they still needed to implement policy reforms to ensure the private sector could supply energy at competitive prices".
"Achieving real systems change will require rapid rates of growth in solar and wind to be achieved and sustained in all countries," it said. "Developed countries that have greater historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions and greater capability to act should aim to grow renewables more quickly than the global average to accommodate other countries where a rapid shift is less feasible".
