Ukraine corn crop tour: Centre-north yields diverge

Corn yield potential for the 2026-27 harvest in Ukraine's Chernihiv and Sumy regions is expected to remain solid despite recent weather challenges, with yields still projected near historical norms, though modestly below last year's strong performance.

In contrast, Poltava has seen a marked recovery from last season, but yields are still forecast to fall short of the five-year average, according to Argus estimates from the first day of its virtual corn crop tour in Ukraine.

Yield prospects in Chernihiv and Sumy remain relatively strong, though trailing behind last year's record or near-record levels. Argus estimates yields in both regions at around 7pc below 2025-26 levels. Despite the year-on-year decline, yields are expected to remain close to the five-year average, at 8.67 t/ha in Chernihiv and at 8.6 t/ha in Sumy. Market participants reported that weather conditions have been less favourable this summer, with lower rainfall limiting yield potential compared with last year.

In Poltava, Argus estimates corn yields higher on the year by 18pc, at 6.52 t/ha, as a result of better growing conditions after a weaker 2025-26 crop. But the average corn yields are still expected to remain 1.3pc below the five-year average. While many fields are showing good crop prospects, performance remains uneven across the region, with weaker conditions in some southern areas weighing on the overall outlook.

As for crop development, corn ears are fully formed across all observed regions and are currently in different stages of grain filling depending on sowing dates. Farmers noted that crop conditions generally remain satisfactory. Final yield outcomes will also depend on harvest conditions and timing, with some market participants warning that limited storage availability could force farmers to leave corn in the fields longer than usual while waiting for export flows to resume, potentially affecting final outputs.