Expanding PET recycling rates and increasing recycled-content use could reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions intensity from US PET beverage bottles by 57pc by 2050, the National Association for PET Container Resources (NAPCOR) said in a report today.
Total annual emissions from the sector could fall by 42pc even as PET production volumes rise, NAPCOR said in a new decarbonization roadmap.
The roadmap identifies a combination of higher recycling rates, greater recycled PET (rPET) use, designing lighter bottles, renewable energy adoption and manufacturing efficiencies as the main drivers of emissions reductions. Total industry emissions are projected to decline to about 1.9mn metric tonnes (t) of CO₂ equivalent by 2050 from roughly 3.3mn t in 2023, the report shows.
Substantial reductions could occur well before 2050. Emissions intensity from producing 16.9oz PET water bottles could fall by about 44pc by 2035 from a 2023 baseline, while emissions from carbonated soft drink bottle production could fall by 35-43pc over the same period. Carbonated soda bottles are typically thicker than still water bottles due to pressure from carbonation.
Lightweighting and renewable energy provide the largest emissions reductions, but stronger collection systems, higher recycling rates and increased recycled content remain important long-term contributors, the roadmap shows.
"PET is the most circular polymer and one of the best materials for packaging, and it will get even better by reducing its carbon emissions," NAPCOR technical director Shankar Prabhushankar said.
The roadmap assumes recycled-content levels in PET bottles could approach 100pc over the long term, while collection and recycling rates increase to about 60pc. Greater progress will require stronger collaboration across the value chain to improve recovery rates, Prabhushankar said.
The US PET recycling rate is only about 40pc, far below rates in the upper 80pc to 90pc range in some western European and Asian countries.
Greater collaboration among industry, regulators and policymakers is needed to improve collection rates and ensure reclaimers have access to consistent supplies of high-quality PET bales to support future investment in recycling capacity, Prabhushankar said.
The study frames recycling as a manufacturing and supply-chain issue rather than solely a waste-management strategy. Capturing more PET bottles for recycling can increase domestic supplies of recycled feedstock, strengthen US manufacturing and improve supply-chain resilience, the report shows.
"Environmental progress is achievable with economic growth," Prabhushankar said, adding that the study demonstrates PET demand can expand while reducing environmental impacts.
The roadmap could provide a framework for extended producer responsibility (EPR) organizations and policymakers as they develop EPR programs with eco-modulated fee structures that vary based on packaging recyclability. The report's lifecycle assessment findings could help determine which packaging materials are incentivized under those systems, Prabhushankar said.
The roadmap, developed by independent environmental consulting firm Eastern Research Group, evaluates four major US PET beverage bottle formats, including water and carbonated soft-drink bottles. The analysis builds on a peer-reviewed, ISO-compliant life-cycle assessment completed in 2023.
