Turkish DAP imports have slumped this year as high international prices have eroded farmer affordability, while demand destruction across phosphates is likely to persist.
DAP importers have largely remained on the sidelines since March, and arrivals in April-July this year were only 43pc of the average for the same period in the three preceding years, GTT data show. Importers do not expect the seasonal increase in DAP imports over September-October for the vegetable season to happen this year because global DAP prices are likely to remain above the domestic level.
Turkish farmers have been reluctant to take on the increase in international levels this year, importers said during the Argus Fertilizer Caspian, Black Sea and Eastern European Markets conference on 17-18 September. The Argus Turkey domestic DAP assessment on a bagged fca basis has remained below replacement costs since the assessment was first published in March, Argus data show. The cfr price has even remained above the dollar equivalent of the bagged fca price since the start of June.
Morocco supplied 57.7pc of Turkey's DAP imports in 2023-25. But since March, producer OCP has exported no DAP to Turkey via the port of Jorf Lasfar, Argus data show. DAP export prices have remained unworkable for Turkish importers since the first quarter.
Instead of relying on imported DAP, Turkish farmers have turned to domestically produced volumes, mainly from manufacturers Toros or Eti Gubre. Argus Analytics expects Turkey's domestic DAP production to total 517,000t over 2026, broadly stable on the year. This output is likely to reflect the bulk of P2O5 availability in the market. Other farmers have turned to alternatives such as SSP, NPs and NPKs. But most importers and distributors report that total P2O5 application this year will be substantially reduced, and that farmers will skip applications for the vegetables season because of high prices.
Turkey imported 397,000 t/yr of DAP over 2023-25, according to GTT data. DAP imports in the first quarter were 13.6pc down on the first-quarter average in 2023-25. The gap widened once global prices rallied when it became clear that the closure of the strait of Hormuz because of the regional war would last beyond March. The Argus DAP Turkey assessment moved from a midpoint of $716/t cfr at the start of the year to $813/t cfr in early March, and has remained above $900/t cfr since the start of June.
