India's expanding steel industry is set to reshape seaborne metallurgical coal and coke trade, with rising steel capacity driving higher imports while buyers diversify sourcing across Australia, Russia, the US, Mozambique and Indonesia.
India's steel production has risen to around 169mn t in 2026 from 104mn t in 2021, while installed capacity has reached about 220mn t, Vasudev Pamnani, director of ¡Energy Natural Resources said at CT Asia 2026. Capacity is expected to approach 300mn t by 2030, creating additional demand for imported steelmaking raw materials.
India consumes around 175mn t/yr of coking coal, but domestic supply accounts for only about 20mn t, leaving steelmakers heavily dependent on imports. Total coking coal and PCI imports are projected to reach around 120mn t by 2030, comprising roughly 90mn t of coking coal and 30mn t of PCI.
Import sourcing is also shifting. Australia's share of India's coking coal supply has declined as buyers increasingly source from Russia, the US and Mozambique. Russian PCI has gained particularly strongly on competitive pricing and suitable quality.
Metallurgical coke is following a similar growth path. India imported around 4mn t in the first seven months of 2026, putting full-year imports on track to reach about 6.5mn t. Imports could remain around 6mn-7mn t by 2030 as steelmakers compare imported coke with the cost of producing coke locally from imported coal.
Indonesia has emerged as a key supplier, accounting for around 2.7mn t of India's coke imports in the first seven months of 2026. Competitive pricing, proximity and lower anti-dumping duties relative to some other origins have supported its rapid gains.
Indonesia's expanding coke capacity could further reshape regional trade flows and potentially challenge China's position as the world's largest coke exporter. China, meanwhile, remains central to the broader seaborne market, with Shanxi supply disruptions tightening domestic coking coal availability and supporting international prices.
For Indian buyers, delivered cost remains the key consideration. Freight, coal quality, blending requirements, anti-dumping duties and the cost of domestic coke production will determine the competitiveness of different origins.
India's steel expansion is therefore creating a structural source of demand for seaborne coal and coke, while diversification of supply is opening opportunities for producers across a wider range of origins.
