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No plans to attack Iran before 3 Nov: Trump

  • Märkte: Crude oil, Freight, Natural gas
  • 08.10.26

The US will not resume hostilities against Iran before the 3 November midterm congressional elections, President Donald Trump said on Thursday.

The US is "having productive discussions" with Iran but the US naval blockade and campaign of economic pressure against Iran will continue, Trump said in a social media post. He claimed that 22mn bl of crude flowed through the strait of Hormuz on Wednesday under the protection of the US military.

Trump's statement is not an ironclad assurance that direct hostilities between the US and Iran will not resume any time soon. Tehran has confirmed continued indirect dialogue with the US, through mediators, but chances of a diplomatic breakthrough appear low. Trump, meanwhile, is working to prevent a further increase in US retail fuel prices, which already have hurt the Republican party's chances of retaining control of both chambers of the US Congress at the midterms.

WTI and Ice Brent crude futures climbed higher on Thursday after Iran expanded attacks on tankers in the Mideast Gulf and the strait of Hormuz. November Nymex WTI fell after Trump's statement, but it was still 4pc higher, at $91.65/bl, than the Wednesday settlement price as of 1:45pm ET.

Iran has increased the pace of its attacks against commercial shipping in the last week, challenging the Trump administration's claim that it had restored oil flows through the strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels.

The US-sponsored operation to enable transporting greater volumes of oil through Hormuz has significantly increased freight and insurance costs for the tankers that do make it to the Gulf of Oman without being hit by Iran.

The Central Command (Centcom), which oversees the Middle East-based US forces, on Thursday pegged the daily flow of oil and other products through Hormuz at 20mn b/d. Centcom chief Admiral Brad Cooper, during a virtual meeting with the representatives of the freight industry "acknowledged the sacrifices made by civilian crews due to unwarranted Iranian attacks".

The US Treasury Department, also on Thursday, announced sanctions on an additional 17 tankers accused of transporting Iranian bitumen, asphalt, ethylene, fuel oil, naphtha, propane and crude to markets in Asia. Treasury also announced sanctions against India-based broker Samudra Marine Services and 18 other companies in the UAE, UK, Turkey and other countries, accusing the firms of facilitating sales of Iranian crude and products.

Do the midterms matter?

Iran has been part of Trump's election narrative for about a month, as he claimed that Tehran is hoping for a victory by the US Democrats who, according to Trump, would be too soft on the Iranian government.

Officially, Tehran has pronounced itself indifferent to the outcome of the US congressional elections. Tehran has pitched a plan to stop attacking ships passing through Hormuz if the US removes the naval blockade, pauses sanctions and repatriates frozen Iranian funds in foreign banks — effectively returning to the terms of the now defunct June "memorandum of understanding" between the US and Iran.

Trump said earlier this month he rejected the proposal. But Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi claimed on Thursday that the Iranian plan remains a subject of discussions.

Trump encountered significant blowback in the US and the Mideast Gulf after concluding a deal with Iran in June, Washington think tank Arab Gulf States Institute executive vice-president William Roebuck said on 6 October. Trump as a result came to the conclusion that "he was better off leaning into the war through the midterms and not cutting a deal that would involve a lot of concessions that would reflect the kind of leverage that Iran had built up in the course of the the war," Roebuck said.

US Democratic lawmakers earlier this year succeeded in advancing resolutions, with limited Republican support, that called on Trump to end hostilities with Iran. But even a majority-Democratic Congress cannot compel the White House to stop the war unless it votes down the Pentagon's request for supplemental funding to replenish the US munitions stocks and pay for other costs of the war — an issue that may not find broad support within the Democratic party.

Trump appears to believe "that he'll be freer, actually, to do what he wants and to put more pressure" on Iran after the midterms, Roebuck said. "I don't think that's going to work, but that's the dynamic that (Trump is) working with."


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