The global copper market is likely to move into a structural deficit from around 2028, with another 8mn-10mn t required by the middle of the next decade to meet rising demand, according to BHP chief financial officer Vandita Pant.
This additional supply is equivalent to 8-10 mines the size of Chile's Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, Pant said at the FT Metals and Mining Summit in London on 15 October.
Copper supply is being constrained by depletion at existing mines, so new projects are required even before accounting for demand growth, she said.
Established copper demand from urbanisation, industrialisation and population growth is now being supplemented by digitalisation and the artificial intelligence drive, as well as investment in power grids and the energy transition.
BHP's latest commodity outlook has global copper demand rising from around 34mn t in 2026 to more than 50mn t/yr by 2050. Demand associated with data centres could rise to around 3mn t/yr by 2050.
But Pant distinguished the longer-term structural deficit from shorter-term tightness.
Copper supply can fall short of expectations even before a structural deficit emerges when miners produce below guidance, creating what she described as "tactical" deficits.
"Even if the structural deficit isn't there yet, there are tactical deficits because I think we have all guided to some states and produced something else," Pant said.
The copper market has faced mine disruption and operational constraints over the past year, while concentrate availability has tightened sharply.
The International Copper Study Group this week cut its forecast for 2026 global copper mine production growth to 1.3pc from 1.6pc, citing revisions in Chile, China and Indonesia. But it expects mine production growth to accelerate to 3.1pc in 2027.
Pant said short-term demand could also be affected by factors including expectations around AI-related consumption and financial investment in copper. But these do not change BHP's longer-term view.
BHP has increased its exposure to copper and is the world's largest producer of the metal. Copper contributed more than half of the company's underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the first time in its 2025-26 financial year.
The group expects its pipeline of organic projects to lift attributable copper production to around 2mn t by the 2035 financial year. Its copper business is targeting average copper-equivalent production growth of around 5pc/yr between the 2026-27 and 2034-35 financial years.
Growth options include expansions at Escondida and Copper South Australia, the Vicuna joint venture in Argentina and the longer-term Resolution project in the US.
