Brazil's presidential runoff between left-wing incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro could bring sharply different approaches to moving grain and fertilizer across the continent-sized country.
Logistics costs in Brazil are among the highest in major agricultural exporting nations. It consumed 15.5pc of Brazil's GDP in 2025, according to the Institute of Logistics and Supply Chain (ILOS). That was nearly double the 8.7pc share reported for the US and slightly above the 13.9pc ratio registered in China, according to data from the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) and China's state council, respectively.
While both candidates support agribusiness expansion, Lula has emphasized federal infrastructure programs, public-private partnerships and subsidized rural credits since taking office in 2023.
Bolsonaro proposes an aggressive private construction effort and private operations. The state provides legal certainty, stable and predictable tariff regulations, and respect for the rationale behind private economic decisions, without interventions that distort market incentives, according to Bolsonaro's infrastructure plan. It is on this basis that private investment would be responsible for construction and operations.
Lula said he expects to move forward with Brazil's growth acceleration program if reelected, known as PAC. The government plan invested R280bn ($55.6bn) in infrastructure in 2025 and expects R300bn destined to infrastructure in 2026.
Bolsonaro's government plan calls for R900bn in infrastructure investment over four years and identifies logistics costs as one of the main constraints on the competitiveness of Brazilian agriculture.
At the center of the proposal are Bolsonaro's "Intelligent Logistics Corridors", designed to improve connections between the central-western grain belt and export terminals. The plan prioritizes projects such as Ferrograo railway, which will link the central-western region — Brazil's largest grain-producing hub — to the Northern Arc export corridor. It also promises to complete the Transnordestina railway, potentially improving grain and fertilizer flows across the northeast.
The 1,200km (745.6-mile) Transnordestina railroad connects the northeastern states of Maranhao, Ceara, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraiba, Alagoas, Pernambuco, Sergipe and Piaui. It is considered strategic for inland transportation of grains, fertilizers, cement, fuels and iron ore because it connects key producing areas to the Pecem port complex, in Ceara, and the Suape port, in Pernambuco. Construction started in 2006 but the project has been delayed several times.
Bolsonaro's platform also ties logistics policy to fertilizer security, reducing the country's reliance on imports. For commodity markets, the proposal links transportation, mining and agricultural policy more directly than the current administration's approach. Lula's approach ties to long-term national development, decarbonization and the reduction of regional and social inequality.
None of the platforms specifically mention Brazil's national land transportation agency ANTT's minimum freight rates, which have been in effect since 2018, cleared by former president Michel Temer. The standard rate came into effect after a truckers' strike over payment and rising diesel prices. The demonstrations blocked major highways and disrupted logistics chains.
Credit underwriting
Despite the candidates' focus on logistics, access to financing remains a central concern for producers.
Lula's platform promises larger volumes of rural credit, financing irrigation systems, machinery and productivity-enhancing technologies, and measures to simplify access to official credit lines. It also proposes expanding funding for family farming and maintaining credit as a tool for agricultural modernization. The government would seek to align interest rates more closely with farm profitability and diversify funding sources through capital markets and agribusiness securities, according to the plan.
Bolsonaro's proposal takes a different approach. Rather than committing to larger budgets for Brazil's farm loans program, known as Plano Safra, the platform links access to financing primarily to land titling, legal certainty and debt restructuring mechanisms. The document argues that regularized property ownership would improve producers' ability to obtain credit and invest, but it stops short of defining funding targets, official lending volumes or interest rate objectives for future Plano Safra programs.
The debate comes as agricultural groups warn that financing has become one of the sector's main structural constraints. A joint study by agribusiness association ABAG, confederation of insurance companies CNseg and credit, financing and investment association Acrefi estimates that Brazilian agribusiness requires more than R1 trillion in annual funding for production, investment and commercialization, compared with R516.2bn provided under the 2025-2026 Plano Safra.
That leaves both candidates facing the same hurdle: translating broad policy goals into mechanisms capable of expanding investment while keeping borrowing costs manageable during a period of elevated interest rates.
Whether either strategy can reduce freight costs and close the sector's financing gap may ultimately matter more than campaign rhetoric for Brazil's commodity markets.
