Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc has signalled to some Asian refiners that the new crude export pipeline it is building to bypass the Hormuz strait could be operational by as early as the second quarter of 2027.
Abu Dhabi already operates the Adcop pipeline which carries up to 1.8mn b/d of Murban crude from Habshan in the west of the country, to Fujairah in the east, outside the strait of Hormuz.
Adnoc in May said the new "West-East pipeline", which been under construction since 2024, was "almost 50pc complete". Work on the project was "accelerating", it said, and would become operational by 2027, doubling its crude export capacity through Fujairah.
Abu Dhabi has not specified publicly when in 2027 the pipeline would be ready.
But market participants told Argus this week that the state energy giant has informed some Asian refiners that they could begin lifting Upper Zakum crude, produced at the giant Upper Zakum field offshore Abu Dhabi, from Fujairah as early as the second quarter of 2027, once the new pipeline is operational.
The Upper Zakum field is the UAE's largest producing field, with a current capacity of about 1mn b/d.
One refiner told Argus the offer was for supplies "after the first quarter". A second person with knowledge of the matter said those supplies are likely to become available "towards the end of the second quarter".
Once the new 48-inch, 1.5mn b/d route is complete, combined crude pipeline capacity to Fujairah will reach around 3.3mn b/d. But sources have previously told Argus that crude export capacity from the port of Fujairah could rise to as much as 4mn b/d when accounting for storage and terminal infrastructure.
Fujairah is the world's third-largest crude and refined products storage hub, and this additional pipeline capacity should give the UAE extra flexibility to manage exports and commercial flows at a time when shipping through the Hormuz strait remains severely disrupted.
Latest data from Kpler puts flows crude and condensate flows through the strait of Hormuz at around 9.44mn b/d in the first 25 days of October, around 65pc of what was going through in February, just before the start of the US-Iran war which prompted Iran to begin threatening shipping through the waterway.
The disruptions have forced many Mideast Gulf oil producers to curtail production over the past eight months. But the Adcop pipeline has put the UAE in a far better position than most to navigate this period, with latest data showing that the UAE has not only recovered its production from the early days of the Hormuz crisis but recently lifted it to above pre-war levels.
Argus estimates UAE production at around 3.9mn b/d in September, up from 3.53mn b/d in February, before the war, and as low as 1.9mn b/d in March, the first month of the Hormuz crisis.
