A core group of seven Opec+ producers have again chosen to keep their crude production quotas unchanged, as the US-Iran war continues to disrupt supplies from several members.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman said after their monthly virtual meeting on Sunday that they would roll over their November quotas into December. The seven last updated their output targets in September, when they finished unwinding a set of large production cuts.
The Mideast Gulf members of the wider alliance have boosted production in recent months by shuttling more crude through the strait of Hormuz, but their ability to sustain this is largely tied to the course of the Iran war and the conflict in Yemen, from where the Houthi militants continue to attack Saudi Arabia, including its civilian and energy infrastructure.
Opec+ production by members with targets rose by 2.47mn on the month in September but remained 4.21mn b/d below their collective target and 3.16mn b/d below the pre-war level in February, Argus estimates. Iran's production in September was around 1.55mn b/d below its pre-war February level, driven by the US naval blockade of its exports.
US president Donald Trump has indicated there may be a resumption of direct strikes against Iran following the US midterm elections on 3 November. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said a renewed attack would be met with an "immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response."
Front month Ice Brent crude futures closed at $117.64/bl on 30 October, the highest since late April, while refined product prices remain at elevated levels.
The seven Opec+ producers set their next meeting for 29 November.
