Indonesia is expected to maintain its strategy of tight control over work plan and budget (RKAB) mining quotas for its key resources, including coal and nickel, to avoid overproduction and ensure that international prices do not fall.
The country's revenues have reached $23.49bn from just over 343mn t exported so far this year, energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia said at the Minerba Convex 2026 held in Jakarta on 2 November. He attributed the rise in Indonesian coal prices this year to tight control of RKAB approvals and curbing overproduction.
Indonesian coal production has hit nearly 567mn t this year, around 77pc of the national target for the year of about 736mn t, according to data from the energy ministry. Just over 186mn t so far has been allocated to domestic utility PLN's coal-fired plants.
"This is a strategy to maintain supply and demand. Our country's income can soar while production decreases… If our production is large, our prices should be good but if they aren't, we should not go all out. That is what's happening with nickel," Bahlil said.
He said nickel prices are falling because of excessive production. Nickel production has reached 113pc of this year's targets while ferronickel downstream processing and absorption only reached 66pc of its target so far, according to government data.
Indonesian coal miners await clarity
Indonesian coal producers are awaiting clarity on RKAB works quotas before they commit to term contracts in 2027. Several major mining firms told Argus that delays to quota approvals this year has caused supply uncertainty and that they are unwilling to negotiate term contracts until they have received new RKABs for 2027 as a result.
Indonesian coal producers are applying for 2027 RKABs and expect results as early as December, according to market participants. But at least two producers told Argus that they have secured term contracts for some of their mines in 2027, with clauses that the quantity of coal supplied might vary according to any cuts or delays to RKABs approved for the next year.
Other producers told Argus that they are focusing their discussions on spot contract sales while working on having their RKAB applications approved. Some of these miners have also received requests from government authorities to increase their commitments for the domestic market obligation, market sources said. Argus could not immediately confirm estimated figures given that applications and discussions are ongoing.
