The central bank has released macroeconomic data for the first time since 2015, highlighting the depth of the country's crisis
Venezuela's central bank has published macroeconomic data for the first time in more than three years, revealing that the oil-based economy shrank by 47pc in real terms in the third quarter of last year from the same period in 2015.
Oil GDP alone contracted by over 44pc during the three-year period, the bank says. The release follows 14 consecutive quarters without any data. The bank did not say why the information was abruptly published, but it coincided with delicate talksbetween President Nicolas Maduro's administration and the political opposition in Oslo, mediated by the Norwegian government.
The 27-29 May talks ended without agreement. The US government, the main backer of opposition leader Juan Guaido, was sceptical of the Oslo talks, fearing they could be exploited by Maduro to remain in power. "We believe the only thing to negotiate with Nicolas Maduro is the conditions of his departure," the US State Department says. Venezuela's economic data blackout was imposed in October 2015 by the bank's former president, Nelson Merentes, who claimed at the time that suspending the publication of quarterly macroeconomic statistics was necessary to counteract an alleged US-led "economic war" against the country.
Caracas is under pressure from multilateral entities, led by the IMF and World Bank, that would refuse to engage in financing discussions until Caracas refreshed its official economic data, opposition-controlled national assembly deputy Jose Guerra says. Maduro may have ordered the central bank to publish the macroeconomic data as a show of goodwill during the Oslo negotiations.
The updated figures issued by the bank show that Venezuela's oil export revenues tumbled to $29.8bn in 2018 from $66.5bn in 2013. This was attributed to a combination of weaker oil prices and falling crude production,which the bank blamed mainly on US sanctions. The data do not include oil export revenues for the first four months of 2019. Venezuelan crude production is thought to have fallen as low as 500,000 b/d in May.
Sanctions and the collapse of Venezuela's refining sector have prompted state-owned PdV to divert dwindling exports to the domestic market, as scarce supplies force the closure of a third of the country's 1,765 service stations. The oil ministry privately estimates that domestic gasoline consumption has dropped to below 120,000 b/d, compared with a peak of 315,000 b/d in 2010. Diesel demand has fallen to 100,000 b/d from a peak of close to 250,000 b/d in 2013.
Living in the past
The bank's updated data show that Venezuela's economy contracted by nearly 48pc in real terms in the third quarter of 2018 compared with April 2013, when Maduro was elected president. Venezuela's inflation-adjusted GDP dropped by 22pc on the year in 2018, and shrank by an estimated 19pc on the year in the first quarter of this year. Venezuela's economy at the end of March had plunged to levels last seen in the early 1940s.
Consumer price index data shows that official inflation of 181pc in 2015 climbed to 274pc in 2016, then 863pc in 2017 and over 130,000pc last year. The central bank reported monthly inflation this year at 197pc in January, 114pc in February, 35pc in March and 34pc in April, suggesting that inflationary pressures have eased since the start of this year.
Weaker consumer demand partly reflects the exodus of five million Venezuelans since 2013. Non-oil GDP decreased by over 46pc in the third quarter of last year compared with the same period in 2015. The worst-performing sectors were construction, which dropped by 89pc, commerce and services by 74pc, banking and insurance by 73pc and manufacturing by 69pc.
