More flooding forecast for Australian coal sector

Australia's coal industry is bracing for more wet weather across New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland, with flood warnings issued around the key port of Newcastle in NSW.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a flood warning for the Lower Hunter and Wollombi rivers for 21 October into the weekend, as heavy rainfall combines with strong river flows from upstream. Flooding at Maitland in the Lower Hunter in July disrupted deliveries into Newcastle for two weeks and delayed maintenance into September causing further disruptions. Heavy fresh water flows into the Newcastle harbour has also reduced ship movements in the port by reducing buoyancy, meaning that only Panamax vessels can load not Capesize ships.

Heavy rainfall is also expected across the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland and in the Hunter valley and Illawarra coal fields in NSW. Most mine sites are also operating with full on-site water storage and saturated ground, making it extremely difficult to drain pits after wet weather.

The third La Nina year in a row has disrupted coal shipments, with Newcastle exports tracking 12pc behind 2021 and 16pc behind the 2019 peak during January-September compared with the same period in earlier years. Queensland shipments are also behind, down by 5pc for January-September against the same period in 2021 and 13pc on 2019.

Argus last assessed high-grade 6,000 kcal/kg NAR thermal coal at $397.90/t fob Newcastle on 14 October, down from a peak of $444.59/t on 12 September. It assessed lower grade 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal at $152.49/t fob Newcastle on 14 October, down from $199.12/t on 12 September.

It assessed premium hard low-volatile coking coal prices at $285.05/t fob Australia on 17 October, up from $187.35/t on 1 August.

By Jo Clarke

Australian coal price comparisons ($/t)