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More flooding forecast for Australian coal sector

  • Spanish Market: Coal, Coking coal
  • 18/10/22

Australia's coal industry is bracing for more wet weather across New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland, with flood warnings issued around the key port of Newcastle in NSW.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a flood warning for the Lower Hunter and Wollombi rivers for 21 October into the weekend, as heavy rainfall combines with strong river flows from upstream. Flooding at Maitland in the Lower Hunter in July disrupted deliveries into Newcastle for two weeks and delayed maintenance into September causing further disruptions. Heavy fresh water flows into the Newcastle harbour has also reduced ship movements in the port by reducing buoyancy, meaning that only Panamax vessels can load not Capesize ships.

Heavy rainfall is also expected across the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland and in the Hunter valley and Illawarra coal fields in NSW. Most mine sites are also operating with full on-site water storage and saturated ground, making it extremely difficult to drain pits after wet weather.

The third La Nina year in a row has disrupted coal shipments, with Newcastle exports tracking 12pc behind 2021 and 16pc behind the 2019 peak during January-September compared with the same period in earlier years. Queensland shipments are also behind, down by 5pc for January-September against the same period in 2021 and 13pc on 2019.

Argus last assessed high-grade 6,000 kcal/kg NAR thermal coal at $397.90/t fob Newcastle on 14 October, down from a peak of $444.59/t on 12 September. It assessed lower grade 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal at $152.49/t fob Newcastle on 14 October, down from $199.12/t on 12 September.

It assessed premium hard low-volatile coking coal prices at $285.05/t fob Australia on 17 October, up from $187.35/t on 1 August.

Australian coal price comparisons ($/t)

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14/10/24

Wolverine Fuels reopens Utah coal mine

Wolverine Fuels reopens Utah coal mine

New York, 14 October (Argus) — US coal producer Wolverine Fuels has reopened Utah's Fossil Rock mine, which had sat idle for 23 years, after the state's coal output fell to its lowest level since 1992. Wolverine subsidiary Fossil Rock Resources, which owns the mine, "has produced minimal quantities of coal as a result of its rehabilitation efforts" at Fossil Rock, Wolverine vice-president of commercial operations Patrick Barrett said. The underground mine is located in Emery County, Utah, and last produced coal in 2001. Wolverine, formerly known as Bowie Resource Partners before rebranding in 2018, acquired the mine from PacifiCorp's Energy West Mining, nine years ago. Fossil Rock produced 8,611 short tons (7,811 metric tonnes) of bituminous coal in the third quarter, according to MSHA. The producer had around 76 workers at the mine last quarter, up from an average of 34 in the second quarter. Wolverine will mine coal at the Fossil Rock mine in small quantities this year. Then the plan is to have a full longwall panel developed and ready to put in place in the next two years. US Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) officially changed the status of the mine to "active" on 4 September. Back in February, US utility PacifiCorp amended its coal supply agreements with Wolverine for its Hunter and Huntington coal-fired power plants to accommodate anticipated output from Fossil Rock. The coal supply agreement contemplated coal from Fossil Rock being shipped to the Hunter plant, although coal could also be directed to the Huntington plant as needed. PacifiCorp did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Wolverine's initiative to reopen Fossil Rock comes in the wake of a September 2022 fire at American Consolidated Natural Resources' Lila Canyon mine, which is also located in Emery County. That mine was closed in January 2024. Fossil Rock hired some of Lila Canyon's former workers and purchased some of its equipment. The closure of Lila Canyon dealt a blow to Utah coal production. Output in the second quarter of this year fell to 1.03mn st, down by nearly 35pc from the same period in 2023. That was the lowest quarterly production since the fourth quarter of 1992. Some of Lila Canyon's former customers, including 1,800MW Intermountain Power plant, had to use more Colorado, Wyoming and Illinois basin coal this year. The Utah Governor's Office of Economic Opportunity on 11 July awarded Wolverine a post-performance tax credit that was tied to Wolverine's plans to add jobs in Emery County over the next five years. By Elena Vasilyeva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India industries confident of 2030 renewable energy aim


14/10/24
14/10/24

India industries confident of 2030 renewable energy aim

Mumbai, 14 October (Argus) — Indian industries are confident about reaching the country's renewable energy target of 500GW by 2030, senior executives said at the Financial Times' Energy Transition Summit in New Delhi last week. This is especially given strong capacity installation of solar and wind projects in the coming years, delegates heard. India's renewable energy capacity stands at 199.5GW as of August, a rise of 12pc on the year, data from the Central Electricity Authority show. "India's [renewable] power sector has already grown at a [compound annual growth rate] of nearly 20pc in the last 10 years … The pace at which some of the bids are coming, we should reach 500GW by 2030," said domestic utility Tata Power's chief executive officer Praveer Sinha. A record 69GW of renewable energy tenders were issued during the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, surpassing the government-mandated target of 50GW. Tata Power is operating 4.5GW installed capacity of renewable energy that produced 64.6Th of electricity in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year. It aims to add another 5GW of installed capacity in the coming years, underscoring its commitment to providing round-the-clock renewable energy through solar, wind, and pumped hydro storage projects, Sinha added. Indian steel manufacturer ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel (AMNS) also plans to add 1GW/yr of renewable energy capacity for its captive power consumption, managing director Dilip Oommen said. AMNS has developed a 975MW hybrid renewable energy project at Alamuru village in India's southern state of Andhra Pradesh. The project will generate 661MW of solar and 314MW of wind power capacity, which will be integrated with a pumped hydro storage facility owned by renewables developer Greenko to overcome the intermittent nature of wind and solar power generation, ensuring round-the-clock power. Power generated from the solar and wind sites will be connected from Andhra Pradesh's Kurnool district via a 400kV interstate transmission system up to AMNS' Hazria facility. The firm is also considering using hydrogen in its electric arc furnace, but remains skeptical about the cost economics. "At present, the cost of hydrogen is $3.50/kg," Oommen said, adding that if this falls below $2/kg, it would be feasible for commercial use at its facilities. The reduction in the cost of renewable power generation over the last few years has also raised interest in the sector, incentivising the coal-dominated eastern regions of India to adopt renewables, said Indian independent power provider Ampin Energy's chief executive officer Pinaki Bhattacharya. The domestic steel sector, one of the country's largest carbon emitters, is looking at ways to reduce emissions in light of the policies under the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which will take effect on 1 January 2026. This was echoed during a session on 9 October when India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted that India has been consistent in promoting domestic investment in renewables and establishing transmission lines. But she described CBAM as "a trade barrier" that could hurt investment in India's heavy industries and hinderthe country's transition away from fossil fuels. CBAM is a "unilateral" and "arbitrary" measure, which would "not be helpful" for India, she said, adding that India's concerns "would definitely be voiced" with the EU. Her sentiments were in line with that of commerce minister Piyush Goyal, who said last year that India will not accept any unfair taxes on steel that the EU imposes under the CBAM. Coal to renewables switch "We are not on track yet to displace coal," said Indian not-for-profit thinktank Centre for Science and Environment's director general Sunita Narain, when asked about India's transition from coal to renewables, considering that coal still dominates the country's electricity mix. Renewable energy generation capacity has currently increased to 13pc of the total electricity mix, but the country needs to hit the 35pc target by 2030, she added. India's power generation continues to rely on coal because of an abundant supply of the fuel as well as its cheaper price over other alternatives. Out of India's total installed capacity of 451GW, coal comprises 48.27pc, followed by solar at 19.84pc and wind at 10.47pc, as of August, data from government think tank Niti Aayog show. By Ankit Rathore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Costs push Vietnam’s EVN to raise retail power prices


14/10/24
14/10/24

Costs push Vietnam’s EVN to raise retail power prices

Singapore, 14 October (Argus) — Vietnam's state-owned utility EVN has raised average retail electricity prices to help cushion increases in power generation cost. EVN has increased the average electricity price by 4.8pc to 2,103.12 Vietnamese dong/kWh ($0.085/kWh), excluding value-added tax. The price rise was effective from 11 October. The price increase is aimed at partly offsetting the increase in power generation, transmission, distribution and management costs at EVN, potentially giving the utility some headroom to absorb the recent increase in imported coal prices. Electricity production and business costs rose by 2.8pc on the year to VND2,088.90/kWh in 2023, EVN said. The increase in power tariffs comes after a Vietnamese federal government order signed in March that gave EVN some freedom to raise prices by up to 5pc from current average retail prices, although the utility has to inform the ministry of industry and trade about the decision. The policy to liberalise retail electricity pricing came as the southeast Asian country continued to ramp up imports to boost generation and meet rising power demand. The country has imported 49.97mn t of all types of coal in the first nine months of the year , up from 37.77mn t in the same period a year earlier, customs data show. Vietnam could end up importing close to 67mn t of coal this year at the current average rate of 5.55mn t/month, according to Argus calculations, up from 51.16mn t in 2023 and marking the country's highest annual imports since the 55mn t of coal it received in 2020. The price increase could help Vietnam adapt to the recent uptick in the seaborne coal market. Argus assessed the GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal market for Supramax cargoes at $52.07/t fob Kalimantan on 11 October, with prices recovering from a 40-month low on 30 August. The Australian NAR 5,500 kcal/kg coal was marked at $90.94/t fob Newcastle on 11 October, rising from $86.66/t on 30 August. Loss-making utility EVN would likely continue to adjust electricity prices every three months. Credit rating agency Fitch in August expected average electricity prices to increase by 4.2pc to VND2,036/kWh in 2024 and by 2pc each year in 2025 and 2026. But EVN said poor households would be insulated from the impact of the price increase through power subsidies. EVN had raised electricity tariffs twice in 2023, when it reported a net loss of VND21.8 trillion in 2023, narrower than the anticipated VND64.9 trillion loss. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico’s Sep inflation slows with energy prices


10/10/24
10/10/24

Mexico’s Sep inflation slows with energy prices

Mexico City, 10 October (Argus) — Lower energy prices supported an easing in Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) in September for a second consecutive month. The CPI slowed to an annual 4.58pc in September, down from 4.99pc in August, Mexico's statistics agency Inegi said on 9 October. This was lower than both Mexican bank Banorte's own 4.59pc estimate and its analysts' consensus estimate of 4.61pc. Energy inflation eased for a second month, dropping to 6.9pc from 7.9pc in August and 9.2pc in July, with LPG prices — the largest component — slowing to 14.7pc in September from 16.8pc in August and 25.6pc in July. Seasonal rains, now ending, have largely reversed the price spikes in farm goods caused by extreme drought earlier this year, with fruit and vegetable inflation slowing to 7.65pc in September from 12.6pc in August, making it the first single-digit rate since November 2023. "Despite the positive performance of agricultural items since August, lingering risks could turn them negative again," Banorte said in a note, emphasizing that above-normal rainfall will be needed in the coming months to avoid a return to drought and price spikes next year. For now, Mexican weather agency Conagua still estimates relatively heavy rains in October, but "more adverse" conditions for November and December, with no state forecast to exceed the upper range of historical rainfall. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, eased in September to 3.9pc from 4pc, moving within the central bank's 2pc to 4pc target range for the first time since February 2021. Inside core, said Banorte, packaged and manufactured goods continue to improve, standing at 2.9pc from 3pc in August. Services also moderated, adjusting to 5.1pc from 5.2pc. "A downward trend in the latter is needed to corroborate additional gains for the core," Banorte said. "This will still take some time, especially given that the margin for additional declines in goods may be running out." The Mexican bank added that within this context, it maintains its estimate for full-year 2024 core inflation to hold to 3.9pc. Though less weighted than core inflation, the bulk of September's easing in the headline was due to non-core inflation, including prices on more volatile items such as fuels and farm goods. Inegi reported non-core moving to 6.5pc in September from 8pc in August. Despite two months of better-than-expected price improvements, Banorte warned that "risks remain," with energy prices susceptible to gains amid "geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and economic stimulus in China." Still, there is "room to adjust gasoline subsidies" to cushion these effects, it added. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cambodia to push for wind over coal in grid


10/10/24
10/10/24

Cambodia to push for wind over coal in grid

London, 10 October (Argus) — Cambodia appears set to cap its coal-fired capacity at current levels, pushing instead to add wind to its grid by 2026. "There is a need for Cambodia to continue to use coal-fired power, but not to allow new projects," mines and energy minister Keo Rattanak said, adding that the supply will be "affordable, stable and equitable". Cambodia is aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 and the government has said it is on track to cut carbon emissions by 42pc by 2030. Rattanak told the English-language Phnom Penh Post that Cambodia is expanding wind capacity with six projects in Mondulkiri province that will generate a combined 900MW. He said these will begin operations in 2026, and help to reduce electricity costs. Hydro, solar and biomass made up 57.25pc of Cambodia's generation capacity last year, according to mining and energy ministry data, while coal had a 32.69pc share, with 1.3GW. But in terms of actual generation, coal accounted for 48.06pc. Cambodia is building 265MW of coal-fired capacity, according to Global Energy Monitor data, but the government has not given any updates this year on progress with this. By Shreyashi Sanyal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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