More flooding forecast for Australian coal sector

Spanish Market: Coal, Coking coal
18/10/22

Australia's coal industry is bracing for more wet weather across New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland, with flood warnings issued around the key port of Newcastle in NSW.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a flood warning for the Lower Hunter and Wollombi rivers for 21 October into the weekend, as heavy rainfall combines with strong river flows from upstream. Flooding at Maitland in the Lower Hunter in July disrupted deliveries into Newcastle for two weeks and delayed maintenance into September causing further disruptions. Heavy fresh water flows into the Newcastle harbour has also reduced ship movements in the port by reducing buoyancy, meaning that only Panamax vessels can load not Capesize ships.

Heavy rainfall is also expected across the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland and in the Hunter valley and Illawarra coal fields in NSW. Most mine sites are also operating with full on-site water storage and saturated ground, making it extremely difficult to drain pits after wet weather.

The third La Nina year in a row has disrupted coal shipments, with Newcastle exports tracking 12pc behind 2021 and 16pc behind the 2019 peak during January-September compared with the same period in earlier years. Queensland shipments are also behind, down by 5pc for January-September against the same period in 2021 and 13pc on 2019.

Argus last assessed high-grade 6,000 kcal/kg NAR thermal coal at $397.90/t fob Newcastle on 14 October, down from a peak of $444.59/t on 12 September. It assessed lower grade 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal at $152.49/t fob Newcastle on 14 October, down from $199.12/t on 12 September.

It assessed premium hard low-volatile coking coal prices at $285.05/t fob Australia on 17 October, up from $187.35/t on 1 August.

By Jo Clarke

Australian coal price comparisons ($/t)

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18/06/25

US Fed sees 2 rate cuts in '25, eyes tariffs: Update

Adds Powell comments, economic backdrop. Houston, 18 June (Argus) — US Federal Reserve policymakers kept the target interest rate unchanged today and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year while downgrading forecasts for the US economy in the face of largely tariff-driven uncertainty. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc, in the fourth meeting of 2025. This followed rate cuts of 100 basis points over the last three meetings of 2024, which lowered the target rate from more than two-decade highs. In the Fed's first release of updated economic projections since President Donald Trump's 2 April "Liberation Day" announcement of far-ranging tariffs, policymakers continued to pencil in two quarter-point rate cuts for the remainder of the year. "Changes to trade, immigration, fiscal and regulatory policies continue to evolve and their effects on the economy remain uncertain," Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the meeting. "Today, the amount of the tariff effects — the size of the tariff effects, their duration and the time it will take, are all highly uncertain. So that is why we think the appropriate thing to do is to hold where we are as we learn more." Policymakers and Fed officials Wednesday lowered their median estimate for GDP growth this year to 1.4pc from a prior estimate of 1.7pc in the March economic outlook. They see inflation rising to a median 3pc for 2025 from the prior estimate of 2.7pc, with unemployment rising to 4.5pc from 4.4pc in the prior forecast. Economists have warned that Trump's erratic use of tariffs and plans to raise the national debt, along with mounting geopolitical risk highlighted by the latest Israel-Iran clashes, threaten to throw the economy into a recession or marked slowdown. Consumer confidence has tumbled and financial markets have been volatile while the dollar has slumped to three-year lows. Still, the labor market and inflation — the two pillars of the Fed's policy mandate — have remained relatively stable into the fifth month of Trump's administration. "As long as the economy is solid, as long as we're seeing the kind of labor market that we have and reasonably decent growth, and inflation moving down, we feel like the right thing to do is to be where we are, where our policy stance is and learn more," Powell said. US job growth slowed to 139,000 in May, near the average gain of 149,000 over the prior 12 months and unemployment has remained in a range of 4-4.2pc since May 2024. Consumer inflation was at an annual 2.4pc in May, down from 3pc in January. US GDP growth contracted by an annual 0.2pc in the first quarter, largely due to an increase in imports on pre-tariff stockpiling, down from 2.4pc in the fourth quarter and the lowest in three years. "What we're waiting for to reduce rates is to understand what will happen with the tariff inflation," Powell said. "And there's a lot of uncertainty about that. Every forecaster you can name who is a professional is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs because someone has to pay for the tariffs." Before Wednesday's FOMC announcement, Trump made a rambling attack on the Fed's policy under Powell, in remarks to reporters at the White House. "I call him 'too late Powell', because he's always too late" in lowering rates. "Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed? I do a much better job than these people." Powell's term in office as Fed chair expires in May 2026. Powell declined to directly address Trump's comments. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed keeps rate flat, still eyes 2 cuts in 2025

18/06/25

US Fed keeps rate flat, still eyes 2 cuts in 2025

Houston, 18 June (Argus) — US Federal Reserve policymakers kept the target interest rate unchanged today and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc, in the fourth meeting of 2025. This followed rate cuts of 100 basis points over the last three meetings of 2024, which lowered the target rate from more than two-decade highs. In the Fed's first release of updated economic projections since President Donald Trump's 2 April "Liberation Day" announcement of far-ranging tariffs, policymakers continued to pencil in two quarter-point rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Policymakers and Fed officials Wednesday lowered their estimate for GDP growth this year to 1.4pc from a prior estimate of 1.7pc in the March economic outlook. They see inflation rising to 3pc for 2025 from the prior estimate of 2.7pc, with unemployment rising to 4.5pc from 4.4pc in the prior forecast. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Banks increased fossil fuel financing in 2024: Report

18/06/25

Banks increased fossil fuel financing in 2024: Report

London, 18 June (Argus) — Banks "significantly increased" their fossil fuel financing in 2024, reversing a trend of steadily declining fossil fuel financing since 2021, a report from a group of non-profit organisations found this week. The 65 biggest banks globally committed $869bn in 2024 to "companies conducting business in fossil fuels", the report — Banking on Climate Chaos — found. Those banks committed $429bn last year to companies expanding fossil fuel production and infrastructure. The report assesses lending and underwriting in 2024 from the world's top 65 banks to more than 2,700 fossil fuel companies. Figures are not directly comparable year-on-year, as the previous report, which assessed 2023, covered financing from 60 banks. The 60 biggest banks globally committed $705bn in 2023 to companies with fossil fuel business, last year's report found. Those banks committed $347bn in 2023 to companies with fossil fuel expansion plans. Of the five banks providing the most fossil fuel finance in 2024, four were US banks — JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. The 65 banks assessed in this year's report have committed $7.9 trillion in fossil fuel financing since 2016, when the Paris climate agreement took effect, the report found. Finance is at the core of climate negotiations like UN Cop summits. Developed countries are typically called upon at such events to provide more public climate finance to developing nations, but the focus is also shifting to private finance, as overseas development finance looks set to drop . But fossil fuel financing banks are increasingly facing the risk of targeted and more complex climate-related litigation, according to a recent report by the London School of Economics' centre for economic transition expertise (Cetex). Climate litigation is not currently adequately accounted for in financial risk assessment, with case filing and decisions negatively impacting carbon financiers, it said. "While early climate cases primarily targeted governments and big-emitting ‘carbon majors', cases against other firms have proliferated quickly," Cetex said. The report also showed that, based on a review of disclosures from 20 banks supervised by the European Central Bank, many banks across Europe recognise litigation risks as material in the context of climate and environmental factors but tend to not be specific about the risks incurred. By Georgia Gratton and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA seeks end to power plant CO2, mercury rules

11/06/25

EPA seeks end to power plant CO2, mercury rules

Washington, 11 June (Argus) — The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Wednesday proposed the repeal of CO2 and mercury emissions standards for power plants, its latest steps in an effort to undo many of the regulations enacted by President Donald Trump's predecessors The agency said the repeals will help bring about an end to the "war on much of our domestic energy supply" waged by previous administrations, while saving consumers money "We have chosen to both protect the environment and grow the economy," EPA administrator Lee Zeldin said. "There was this false binary choice made before we got here." Together, the repeals would save more than $1bn/yr for American families, Zeldin said. The standards, finalized last year by EPA during the administration of former president Joe Biden, cover CO2 emissions from existing and new coal-fired power plants and new natural gas-fired units, as well as mercury emissions from coal- and oil-fired power plants. At the time, EPA said the CO2 rules will lead to a 90pc reduction in emissions from coal-fired power plants, while it tightened the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) for coal- and oil-fired units by 67pc and included new emissions-monitoring requirements. In addition, the MATS for lignite-fired units were tightened by 70pc to put them in line with the standards for other coal plants. The CO2 rule includes standards for new coal and gas units and guidance for existing coal-fired power plants, the latter of which vary by unit type, size and other factors such as whether a power plant provides baseload or backup power. It does not include standards for existing gas-fired generators, which EPA had proposed in 2023 but last year decided to scrap in favor of a "new, comprehensive approach". While the CO2 regulation would be fully repealed, Zeldin said the agency is proposing to only undo last year's "gratuitous" changes to MATS, such as the new lignite standards. "If finalized no power plant will be allowed to emit more than they do now or as much as they did one or two years ago," he said. In addition to repealing the two Biden regulations, EPA is proposing to undo the Clean Power Plan, developed by the agency during the administration of former president Barack Obama. It would do this in part by reversing a previous agency determination that it could regulate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power plants, and by also finding that those emissions "do not contribute significantly to dangerous air pollution." The Clean Power Plan has never been enforced, and the US Supreme Court in 2022 ruled the agency lacked the authority to regulate CO2 emissions from power plants in the way envisioned by that approach. Unlike during Trump's first term, when EPA first sought to repeal the Clean Power Plan, the agency this time around is not proposing any replacement. The previous replacement rule was struck down by the US District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals in 2021. The lack of a new rule could make EPA more vulnerable to legal challenges, which are all but certain to be filed by environmental groups and some states. "This administration is transparently trading American lives for campaign dollars and the support of fossil fuel companies, and Americans ought to be disgusted and outraged that their government has launched an assault on our health and our future," Sierra Club climate policy director Patrick Drupp said. Zeldin said he was not concerned about any potential litigation. "I would say with great enthusiasm and excitement for the future, I know we are absolutely going down the right path," he said. Coal and electric sector groups cheered EPA's proposal. "Today's announcement nullifies two of EPA's most consequential air rules, removing deliberately unattainable standards and leveling the playing field for reliable power sources, instead of stacking the deck against them," National Mining Association president Rich Nolan said. EPA in March included the CO2 and mercury rules among 31 Obama and Biden-era regulations and actions it planned to review and potentially repeal. Since then, the White House has identified more than 60 fossil fuel-fired power plants that will have two extra years to comply with the more-stringent MATS, giving them a reprieve while EPA works to formally repeal the regulations. The March announcement also included a reconsideration of the 2009 endangerment finding for GHG emissions, which underpins all of the major climate regulations EPA issued in recent years. "I don't have anything to announce today as it relates to any proposed rulemaking that may be to come on that topic," Zeldin said. EPA will open a 45-day public comment period on each proposed repeal once they are published in the Federal Register . By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India, Turkey drive US April met coal exports

11/06/25

India, Turkey drive US April met coal exports

London, 11 June (Argus) — US coking coal exports picked up slightly on the year in April despite lower Atlantic consumption, driven by buyers in India and Turkey. Suppliers in the country shipped 3.28mn t of coking coal in the month, according to data from GlobalTradeTracker, a 4pc increase from April 2024. India took 600,000t from the US in April, 62pc more than the year before, while exports to Turkey jumped by 275pc to 289,000t. Participants in the US market shifted their attention to India when China placed tariffs on US coals in February. Suppliers shipped no new tonnes to China in the month, with two diverting cargoes to other countries, according to port logs and data from vessel tracking service Kpler. A US east coast supplier found a buyer for the diverted tonnes in South Korea, while a ship carrying coal from Alabama changed its destination to Japan. US coking coal exports to Poland were the highest since 2010 and the fourth-largest in history, probably as a result of lost domestic production by Polish coking coal and met coke producer Jastrzebska Spolka Weglowa (JSW) earlier this year. The European country took 267,000t from the US, a 368pc increase from the year before. Although Polish importers took fewer seaborne tonnes in total in April, Chinese sanctions on US coking coal drove Canadian suppliers to China and pushed US high-volatile prices down, making US imports more attractive. Canada exported 178,000t to Poland in April 2024 and sent no cargoes in the same month this year. The US sent 1.23mn t to the EU in April, a 10pc drop from the year before. Importers in the Netherlands took 26pc less at 408,000t. Suppliers sent significantly less to Austria, with exports falling by 73pc to 74,000t. Suppliers shipped no new tonnes to China in the month, with two diverting cargoes to other countries, according to port logs and data from Kpler. A US east coast supplier found a buyer for the diverted tonnes in South Korea, while a ship carrying coal from Alabama changed its destination to Japan. By Austin Barnes US coking coal exports Apr 2025 '000t Country Apr 2025 Apr 2024 %±y-o-y World 3,281 3,145 4 India 600 370 62 Brazil 440 448 -2 Netherlands 408 549 -26 Turkey 289 77 275 Poland 267 57 368 Italy 201 114 76 Japan 182 235 -23 Malaysia 151 0 N/A Canada 117 158 -26 Vietnam 102 0 N/A — GTT Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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