Australia stays on track for 40pc GHG fall by 2030

Australia is on track to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40pc by 2030 from 2005 levels, or just short of its target of a 43pc reduction over the same period, based on current emissions reduction polices, according to the Australian government's inaugural Annual Climate Change Statement.

The 2022 Emissions Projection report from the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW), released along with the annual statement, shows the actions and policies put Australia on track for a 40pc emissions reduction by 2030, said Australian energy and climate change minister Chris Bowen.

These projections do not yet include the A$20bn ($13.6bn) Powering Australia measures, such as some elements of the Powering the Regions Fund and the National Electric Vehicle Strategy, nor additional commitments such as the National Energy Performance Strategy, Bowen said. Powering Australia is to fund new transmission links from planned new renewable energy zones to the existing power grid.

"Policies we received a mandate for, and are working on implementing including, will lift our result to at least 43pc," Bowen said.

Australia under the baseline scenario, which is a business as usual approach, is projected to achieve a 32pc reduction in GHG emissions from 2005 levels in 2030. The additional measures scenario, which incorporates some but not all measures that are now being implemented under the Powering Australia plan, is projected to achieve a 40pc reduction on 2005 levels in 2030, according to the Emissions Projection report.

Australia's 43pc reduction target requires GHG emissions needing to fall to 354mn t of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by the end of the decade, although is currently tracking for a 40pc fall to 371mn t over the same period. This is still an increase over Australia's 2021 Emissions Projection report that projected emissions to fall to 439mn t in 2030.

The latest quarterly GHG emissions report showed emissions for the 12 months to June 2022 estimated to be 486.9mn t CO2e, or up 0.1pc on the previous year, according to the quarterly update of Australia's national GHG inventory June 2022 report. This means that Australia's emissions will have to fall by a further 27.2pc to reach its 2030 target.

The latest inventory report showed further falls in emissions from Australia's electricity sector as more power is generated from renewable sources. Electricity GHG emissions dropped by 3.7pc or 6.1mn t of CO2e to 157.8mn t of CO2e in the 12 months to 30 June. The 2022 Emissions Projection report projects electricity emissions to drop to 79mn t by the end of the decade.

Renewable energy generated around 34pc of electricity in east Australia, which accounts for more than 80pc of national electricity consumption. Coal-fired plants accounted for 59pc of power generation over the same period and gas accounted for the remainder.

Fugitive emissions, largely from coal and gas extraction, rose by 3.4pc or 1.7mn t of CO2e to 50.3mn t in the year to 30 June, the inventory report showed.

By Kevin Morrison