A heavier reliance on abatement could signal a switch in policy, write Georgia Gratton, Victoria Hatherick and Dafydd ab Iago
The European Commission has its eye on a 90pc cut in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2040 from a 1990 baseline, draft documents seen by Argus show. Electrification and renewable energy lie at the heart of the early-stage draft plans, but carbon management — capture, use, storage and removals — looks set to play a bigger role than previously expected.
The documents — including a detailed impact assessment of options for the EU's 2040 climate target and an industrial carbon management strategy — are draft non-legislative proposals and not set to be released until 6 February. A reduction of 90pc in GHG emissions by 2040 seems highly ambitious, although it is sandwiched between legally binding EU targets of a 55pc GHG cut by 2030 from 1990 levels, and net zero GHG emissions by 2050. But it does not move the needle far on current trajectories. "An extension of current policies towards 2040 would already lead to [an 88pc] reduction by 2040," the commission wrote in its overarching communication.
Electrification will be key to the bloc's transition, particularly in the road transport and heating sectors. The commission plans for the power sector to "come close to full decarbonisation in the second half of the 2030s" — aligned with previous G7 pledges. And it projects consumption of fossil fuels for energy to decrease by about 80pc by 2040 compared with 1990. The documents outline roles for improved energy efficiency, biofuels and e-fuels, but there is also a notable focus on carbon management, including carbon capture and storage (CCS).
The commission's scenario to cut emissions by at least 90pc by 2040 "relies on a fully developed carbon management industry by 2040, with carbon capture covering all industrial process emissions and delivering sizeable carbon removals". For CO2 capture, the draft suggests a goal of storing "at least" 200mn t/yr of CO2 by 2040 in the European Economic Area — which includes non-EU members Norway and Iceland, both front-runners in Europe's nascent CCS industry.
The draft strategy also floats a 450mn t CO2 capture figure by 2050 — thought to be annual. The EU already has a proposed target of 50mn t/yr of CO2 injection capacity by 2030 and is set to mandate oil and gas producers "to invest in those initial infrastructures". But the emerging CCS industry will need "a coherent policy framework that provides regulatory certainty and incentives for investments", the commission says. Investment to hit the 2030 goal of 50mn t/yr is estimated to be at least €13bn ($14bn) for storage and transport.
CCS solutions
The draft plans may change before formal presentation and they are not legal proposals, but they do suggest a shift in approach for the EU. The bloc was adamant at last year's UN Cop 28 climate summit in Dubai that CCS should act only as a "minor part of the solutions space", EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said. "We cannot CCS ourselves out of the space," he said in Dubai.
The new proposals, once made, would have to move through EU processes before becoming law, including member of parliament (MEP) voting. European Parliament elections are scheduled for June and they are expected to result in alift in right-wing MEPs, which could affect member states' action on climate change, a study by think-tank the European Council on Foreign Relations found last week. The commission's preferred target of 90pc GHG emissions cuts by 2040 also relies on substantial carbon removals from the land use, land use change and forestry sector, the documents show. But this would involve the agricultural sector, and could be a hard sell given ongoing protests by farmers in France, Belgium and Germany.
