Global oil demand is set to grow by 1.2mn-1.3mn b/d for the rest of 2025, driven by developing economies, strong US gasoline use and China's petrochemicals sector, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said at the Opec seminar in Vienna today.
Nasser said demand would continue to rise as per capita oil use in developing countries remains well below levels in Europe and the US. His outlook was echoed by other state-owned oil companies and international majors, who pointed to tight physical markets and resilient buying interest in Asia.
The chief executive of Kuwait's KPC, Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah, said demand "remains healthy" despite macroeconomic headwinds. He said customers in China, Japan and South Korea had recently asked KPC not to cut crude allocations and to send additional barrels if available.
"That's an indication that this is a balanced market," Al-Sabah said. He added that demand is likely to remain strong even after the seasonal summer uptick fades in the northern hemisphere.
Al-Sabah also noted that the market responded positively to the most recent Opec+ decision to accelerate planned output increases in August. "I just don't see the additional non-Opec supply coming in at a rate that would exceed the demand numbers that we're talking about," he said.
BP chief executive Murray Auchincloss said he expects oil demand growth of around 1pc this year. "Physically, markets are tight right now — whether that's oil, gasoline, jet or diesel. They're all quite tight with low storage levels, and China is injecting an awful lot into storage," he said.
Shell chief executive Wael Sawan said short-term fundamentals are tight, with "a healthy balance between supply and demand".
TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne was more cautious, pointing to structurally lower oil demand growth in China. He said Chinese demand, which previously grew by 700,000-800,000 b/d annually, is now rising by just over 300,000 b/d a year. He added that he hopes India and other emerging markets will offset the slowdown.
Still, Pouyanne said global oil demand continues to grow and that supply must keep pace.
