Ecuador's crude production will reach an average of about 439,100 b/d in 2025, down by 7pc compared with 474,000 b/d in 2024, the central bank estimated in its latest GDP projection report.
That is lower than the 465,400 b/d the ministry of finance estimated in its 2025 budget draft sent at the end of August to congress.
Outages of about 23 days on Ecuador's two major crude pipeline — the 450,000 b/d OCP and 360,000 b/d Sote — hurt output. Erosion along the banks of the Coca river and its tributaries that threatened to rupture them forced their shutdown.
The progressive closure of oil activities in block 43, that includes the Ishpingo, Tambococha and Tiputini (ITT) fields, are the secondary reason.
In August 2023, about 54pc of the Ecuadorian voters to end halt oil activities in ITT by 2029 because they are in the Yasuni ecological reserve. Operator state-owned Petroecuador plans to shut 48 out of the 188 active wells there in 2025. From January-August, Petroecuador estimated that 24 wells should be shut.
From January-July, ITT produced an average of about 46,500 b/d, down by 20pc compared with the same period in 2024, according to data from Petroecuador.
The central bank also expects that Ecuador's revenues from crude and fuel exports will plummet to about $7.7bn in 2025, down by 20pc compared with the approximately $10bn received in 2024. Usually about 90pc of these revenues come from crude exports, and the remaining 10pc comes from the exports of fuel oil 6.
But crude processing in Petroecuador's three refineries with 175,000 b/d of total capacity also tumbled by 32pc from January-July, averaging only about 91,000 b/d, mainly because of the halt of Esmeraldas for more than 30 days from April-June, according to data of Petroecuador. Ecuador did not produce enough fuel oil to export this year.
