An increase in the flow of imported gasoline arriving at southern and southeast Brazil ports and a fuller schedule of auctions held by state-controlled Petrobras during 2025 will remain key variables for the dynamics of the Brazilian fuel market in 2026.
A combination of open arbitrage for foreign products and a court-ordered shutdown of the 15,000 b/d Manguinhos refinery (Refit) in October prompted distributors to look abroad for volumes of gasoline in 2025. Combined imports into the two regions in January-November totaled 422,908m³ (8,001 b/d), an almost three-fold increase over volumes imported in the same 11-month period in 2024, according to data from the Brazilian trade ministry.
Southern and southeast ports received around 26pc of total imported gasoline arriving in Brazil in July-November — 23pc more than the same period in 2024.
The rise in foreign cargo landings in these regions runs counter to the lower dependence on imports that was expected to follow national energy policy council CNPE's increase in the anhydrous ethanol content in gasoline to 30pc from 27pc — a change that came into force on 1 August.
Around the same time, Petrobras started adding more auctions to its 2025 schedule. Favorable arbitrage led a portion of distributors to reduce requests for volumes covered by supply contracts with Petrobras to seek lower prices for domestic products. Negotiations for imported cargoes gained traction after the late-August suspension of activities at Refit, as distributors sought to fill the gap left by the refinery's removal as a supply source — historically around 12pc for the southeast region.
Auctions, in the assessment of industry players, are a clear signal to importers that Petrobras is willing to compete for market share.
Petrobras offered 130,000m³ (819,000bl), 265,000m³ (1.67mn bl) and 450,000m³ (2.835mn bl) in auctions held in October, November and December, respectively. The total volume purchased by distributors, 791,000m³, corresponds to about 13pc of all gasoline sold by the company in the same period in 2024.
All winning bids in the auctions were at discounts compared to reference levels at the company's refineries and terminals.
Some distributors expect Petrobras to reduce wholesale prices in early 2026, to offset a planned 1 January, R50/m³ (3.413¢/USG) increase in ICMS tax — which will bring the total levy to R1.570/m³ (107.162¢/USG). The move could reduce the favorable arbitrage window for imports and ease a challenging scenario for selling production at current price levels.
The Brazilian gasoline market is expected to start 2026 in an oversupply situation, which puts pressure on spot market prices. With the 396,000m³ (2.495mn bl) purchased at Petrobras' December auction scheduled to be supplied in January, there is concern about inventory levels throughout the month.
If the arbitrage continues at current levels, distributors are likely to maintain their strategy of increasing exposure to imported products — a possible signal for new large-volume auctions to come, maintaining the logic of the second half of 2025.
Naphtha flows under scrutiny
Flows of imported naphtha into the country continue to be closely monitored by market participants. With gasoline production subject to specifications established by hydrocarbons regulator ANP, naphtha has also been flagged by public authorities as a method for achieving undue tax advantages, for example by falsely claiming that acquisitions of higher-taxed blended gasoline are naphtha imports.
Investigations that shed light on these practices — the basis for the suspension at Refit — led to a drop in the volume of naphtha imported into the country and a reorganization of flow routes. The change caused preferred destinations for naphtha flows, such as Alagoas and Amapa states, to lose out to states like Amazonas.
Market participants hope that regulatory changes under discussion within congress and ANP will curb irregular flows of naphtha and correct distortions in the fuel sector, potentially generating new opportunities for different market participants throughout 2026.
