Nigeria's downstream authority NMDPRA is likely to issue new gasoline and diesel import permits this month, according to sources with knowledge of the matter.
The issuance is expected as soon as mid-February or by the start of March, sources told Argus.
The NMDPRA was approached for comment.
The departure of Farouk Ahmed as head of the NMDPRA on 17 December was likely to have had a trickle-down effect by delaying the decision-making process on import permit issuance, one source said.
Argus previously reported the regulator had not issued any gasoline import permits for 2026, as it wants to limit them to covering expected shortfalls in domestic refinery output.
The NMDPRA typically issues refined product import permits that are valid for a three-month period to cover each quarter, according to one source. It is not clear how this system would be maintained if a decision on permit issuance is made almost midway into the first quarter of 2026.
Crude receipts at the Dangote refinery declined to a 16-month low in January, implying that crude distillation unit (CDU) run rates may have fallen. Suppressed crude processing activity may support greater imports to supplement a decline in domestic output, in line with the regulator's preferences. Seaborne crude deliveries to the refinery fell to 250,000 b/d last month, compared with 350,000 b/d in December.
Argus last month reported maintenance to the refinery's gasoline-yielding RFCC unit and crude distillation unit (CDU).
But gasoline demand is likely to have dropped off last month, with many offices shutting around the Christmas period and into early January, one source said.
Nevertheless, new gasoline import permits would probably facilitate the import of what market participants have said in recent sessions are more competitive foreign gasoline barrels relative to product on offer at the Dangote refinery. Asking prices for the product jumped by 14pc to 799 naira/litre on 27 January, after being slashed to N699/l on 12 December.
