Mideast Gulf naphtha supply is coming under growing pressure, as Kuwait's state-owned KPC and Bahrain's Bapco became the latest refiners to signal export disruptions, with cargo cancellations and shipment delays continuing across the region.
KPC, which depends entirely on the strait of Hormuz to ship supplies, issued a force majeure on its crude and refined product exports, potentially removing naphtha exports of 560,000 t/month, or 165,300 b/d, from the regional supply pool, according to data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi).
Bapco Energies also issued a similar notice after a fire broke out at its 405,000 b/d Sitra refinery on 9 March, disrupting a further 167,000 t/month, or 49,300 b/d, given that it prioritises domestic requirements over exports.
Kuwait's naphtha refinery output averaged at 194,000 b/d in 2025, and Bahrain's averaged at 49,900 b/d, Jodi figures showed.
Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc has notified buyers of shipping delays. Meanwhile, QatarEnergy issued cargo cancellation notices to customers last week. Neither has declared force majeure, but such a move from the regional refiners could threaten a further 1.96mn t/month, or 574,000b/d, of naphtha exports from the UAE and 997,000 t/month, or 291,000 b/d, from Qatar, according to ship-tracking data from Vortexa. The data exclude inter-regional deliveries.
QatarEnergy faced drone attacks on its facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed Industrial City, but it remains unclear whether its 146,000 b/d condensate splitters at Ras Laffan were affected, which could reducing naphtha output.
Meanwhile, Oman exports about 271,000 t/month, or 79,000 b/d, of naphtha on average. State-owned OQ's Duqm refinery, located outside the strait of Hormuz, offers an alternative route for cargoes bound for Asia-Pacific without passing through the waterway. Several drone attacks at Duqm port last week, coupled with higher shipping costs in Omani waters, have hampered flows. Run rate cuts at the refinery were being considered, market participants said. But this could not be immediately confirmed with the refiner.
Taken together, the four key exporters put an estimated 4.18mn t/month of regional naphtha exports at risk.
Supply fears are already reverberating through the Asian naphtha market, with regional prices hitting a four-year high on 9 March and Mideast Gulf naphtha premiums rising to $90.75/t on the same day, the highest level in at least five years. The disruption is also weighing on downstream operations, with Asian petrochemical producers trimming run rates in anticipation of tighter crude feedstock availability.
Any prolonged loss of Mideast Gulf supply would likely push Asian buyers towards alternative sources such as Europe, where naphtha values are also being supported by spring refinery maintenance and firm gasoline blending demand. The East-West spread eased to $59/t on 9 March from a multi-year high of $64/t on 3 March, underscoring the strength in European naphtha values.
Cargoes from west of Suez would take at least 28 days to reach Asia-Pacific via the Suez Canal, compared with an average voyage time of 15-17 days for shipments from the Mideast Gulf, ship-tracking data from Kpler show.
