Updates with more details, context
The eight core Opec+ members today agreed to raise their collective production target by 206,000 b/d in May, despite the conflict in the Mideast Gulf disrupting the group's supplies.
The increase will match levels the eight countries — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Russia, Kazakhstan and Oman — agreed to for April at its last meeting on 1 March, and comes as part of a process the group began in April 2025 to unwind 1.65mn b/d of production cuts.
That 1 March meeting came one day after the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran, triggering a war that has now entered its sixth week.
Tehran has been responding to US and Israeli strikes on military, industrial and civilian infrastructure by launching missiles and drones against targets in Israel and across the Mideast Gulf. Energy facilities and installations in Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Iraq have been targeted by Iranian drones in just the past 24 hours.
Iran has also threatened commercial vessels traveling through the strait of Hormuz, severely disrupting what is typically around 15mn b/d of crude flows. Some traffic is now being allowed through by Iran, but the slowdown in flows has forced key Mideast Gulf producers, including Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to significantly curtail production. Argus estimates crude production from these four countries has fallen by a combined 9.15mn b/d versus February levels.
Until the disruption through the strait is addressed, the group of eight will struggle to translate decisions to raise production targets into actual production increases.
Reflecting on the conflict in the Mideast Gulf, the group of eight "expressed concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability," according to a joint statement.
They stressed that any actions undermining energy supply security, be they attacks on infrastructure or disruption of international maritime routes, increase market volatility.
The group of eight will next meet on 3 May.
