Opec has again kept its global supply and demand forecasts unchanged, despite the disruptions to oil exports from the Middle East because of the Iran war.
The figures Opec released in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) today do not suggest any demand destruction because of the war, which has blocked exports through the strait of Hormuz, led to huge oil production shutdowns and seen oil prices surge.
Opec sees oil consumption growing by 1.38mn b/d to 106.53mn b/d in 2026 and by 1.34mn b/d to 107.87mn b/d in 2027.
While Opec downgraded its oil demand forecast for the second quarter, "given ongoing developments in Middle East," it said this would be offset by stronger consumption in the second half of the year. But should oil production in the Mideast Gulf remain constrained at anything close to current levels, Opec's demand figures imply a colossal supply deficit this year.
Opec does not forecast its own members' oil output, but it publishes production estimates from secondary sources, which include Argus. These showed Opec+ production — including Mexico — fell by 7.702mn b/d on the month to 35.055mn b/d in March.
The fall was driven by the Mideast Gulf members of the alliance — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain — which saw a combined decrease of just over 8mn b/d, according to secondary source data.
Opec does not see output from outside the alliance filling any potential deficit. The group sees non-Opec+ supply growing by 630,000 b/d to 54.83mn b/d in 2026 and by 620,000 b/d to 55.45mn b/d in 2027, unchanged from last month.
