Egyptian buyers have shown an interest in 11.5pc and 12.5pc protein milling wheat on a cif basis to Mediterranean ports after a quiet May. More buyers could follow, with new crops in the Black Sea hitting the market.
Importers in Egypt booked multiple cargoes of Russian 12.5pc protein wheat for June and July delivery this week, marking a return to buying after large April arrivals left the country with ample stocks in May. Demand also emerged for Ukrainian 11.5pc protein wheat this week, with bids in line with 12.5pc wheat because of stronger demand for the grade around holiday periods, market participants said.
The Argus cif Egypt Mediterranean ports price for 12.5pc protein content wheat rose to $259.50/t on 3-4 June, up from $256.50/t a week earlier.
Some buyers may still be waiting until the Black Sea harvest reaches ports, expecting more pressure on prices. Market participants anticipate further demand in the coming weeks for new-crop wheat loading in late July and August. Sellers have cut their offers for 12.5pc protein wheat on a fob basis for loading in August, compared with offers for July. Harvest delays in the Black Sea could push new-crop arrivals back to late July and August .
Buyers could also be encouraged by a stronger Egyptian pound, which recovered to $1:E£51.87 on 4 June from as low as $1:E£54.75 on 7 April. The exchange rate was $1:E£47.97 at the end of February.
The weaker pound in April and May had made imported wheat less competitive against previously imported wheat in the ex-warehouse market. Buyers cut their bids in April under pressure and focused on buying from domestic warehouse purchases in May. Buyers could secure wheat in the domestic market at prices equivalent to $252-253/t cif in May, according to market participants.
Argus estimates Egypt will import 13.2mn t of wheat in July 2025-June 2026, roughly in line with 13.3mn t a year earlier. The country had imported 7.8mn t by February, customs data show.
Argus forecasts Egypt's wheat imports at 12.5mn t for 2026-27, but market participants expect volumes above 13mn t on strong demand, partially because of support from the country's growing flour export sector.
