A proposed UK plan to ease battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales targets is a win for "short-termist incumbent lobbying", industry experts say, even though sales uptake has so far trailed the government's mandates.
UK ministers are preparing a consultation that could result in the country's zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales mandate being lowered to roughly 50-70pc of all new car sales by 2030 from 80pc at present. Carmakers have struggled to keep pace with the government's targets and warn that their costs are rising sharply as the mandates tighten further. This strain can be seen in sales data, with BEVs accounting for 23.4pc of all new car sales last year, against a 28pc government mandate. The gap between actual sales and the government target comes despite strong sales growth and heavy incentives.
Growth has continued this year but is still trailing behind the government target, which has climbed to 33pc of all sales this year. This has pushed carmakers to work to close the gap through discounts, timing tactics and credit trading, to drive up consumer demand.
Carmakers are able to meet the ZEV requirement by banking credits, borrowing from future years or pooling performance — a system that has allowed compliance even when their annual averages lag. Sales tend to spike around the March plate change and April tax deadline, somewhat offsetting weaker periods.
Industry-wide BEV discounting has exceeded £10bn ($13bn) over the past two years, in order to induce demand, UK trade body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) says. This is equivalent to an average discount of almost £12,000/vehicle, which is a level that industry cannot sustain, the SMMT says. Other parties are more conservative, with retail platform Autotrader and consultancy Jato estimating an average discount of around £5,500/vehicle, clean energy think-tank Transport and Environment says.
Some energy firms and campaign groups are pushing back against the government's proposal to weaken the rules. The government has chosen to side with short-termist incumbent lobbying instead of support the long-term future of industry, UK utility Octopus Energy founder Greg Jackson said. Fewer EV sales would result in higher electricity system costs, Jackson said.
Repeated policy changes risk deterring investment, charging firms and advocacy groups warn. Policy instability "creates uncertainty for drivers and businesses, undermines confidence and makes investment decisions harder", industry body Electric Vehicles UK chief executive Tanya Sinclair said.
And the market remains reliant on support measures. BEV uptake has been largely driven by corporate fleets and tax perks in recent years, with private demand remaining weak. Sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles have grown faster when confidence in fully electric cars dips, reflecting concern over upfront costs and charging access.
The implications of this for the wider energy system are material, Transport and Environment said. Cars consume about 1bn bl of oil in Europe each year, costing the region about €67bn ($78bn) in imports last year, according to the think-tank. EVs are starting to reduce that exposure, with existing fleets saving around 46mn bl of oil in 2025 alone. This has cut import costs and dampened Europe's exposure to fuel price shocks. But weakening ZEV pathways would partly reverse that shift. A less ambitious trajectory across Europe could raise oil demand by hundreds of millions of barrels over the next decade, increasing import costs and leaving drivers more exposed to volatile oil markets, Transport and Environment said.
